Human capital is becoming the most important production factor
Ensuring that the younger generation receives sound vocational training can, on a long-term basis, safeguard against the impending shortage of skilled labour and ensure that German trade and industry remain competitive in the future. At the same time however shrinking age cohorts place natural limits on Germany's supply of labour. Younger, smaller age cohorts must increase their efforts and obtain more education if Germany is to still have a sufficient pool of labour to replace skilled workers as they retire and if it is to meet the demands of increasingly complex jobs. Such an increase in the amount of education being sought could be observed in Germany for a number of years and was an important factor in the shift in occupational and vocational patterns that has already taken place. However, back in 2003 already, analyses of qualification structures in Germany up to the year 2000 pointed to stagnation in the amount of education being received (see REINBERG/ HUMMEL 2003). With the exception of a continued slight increase in the share of university graduates, the number of young people receiving some form of education has stagnated since the early 1990s. This trend is now confirmed by more recent figures from the National Accounting System for Education for the years up to 2005. Although, in contrast to the earlier analysis, data for Germany as a whole were used in this analysis, 1 the hypothesis that education in Germany is progressively stagnating can be better substantiated as a result.
