Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

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Number of vacant training places and number of unplaced applicants between 1992 and 2004

Statistics from the Federal Employment Agency's Vocational Guidance services show a mixed picture at the close of the 2003/2004 placement year. The number of unplaced applicants increased by 9,600 to a total of 44,600. At the same time, the number of vacant training places fell by 1,400. As a result, the nominal difference between the number of vacant training places and the number of unplaced applicants grew by 11,000 to 31,200. This gap is the largest in the history of post-reunification Germany.

The number of unplaced applicants exceeded the number of training place vacancies at 147 of Germany's 176 employment agencies (the Berlin agencies were combined into one district here). Only 29 regions reported a surplus of vacant training places. By comparison, 104 regions had more vacancies than unplaced applicants in 2001.

Reasons for the growing gap

The fact that this numerical gap was once again considerably larger than in the previous year was in all probability not due to a further decline in the number of training places on offer. Although the Federal Employment Agency had some 26,900 training places fewer on file than in the previous year, initial interim figures show that trade, industry and the skilled crafts are reporting a marked increase in the number of new training contracts between individual trainees and companies providing in-house vocational training. This indicates that the number of new contracts for in-company vocational training will probably top the half-million mark this year - following last year's low of 497,000 - despite the employment sector's continuing serious problems. The destination statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency's Vocational Guidance services also point to the possibility of a further increase in the number of new training places this year. According to these figures, the number of registered applicants who began a vocational training programme grew by 26,600.

The fact that the nominal gap between the number of registered applicants and vacancies has grown to 31,200 is probably due to three factors in particular:

• The number of school-leavers from schools offering a general education is on the rise; 

• The number of unplaced applicants carried over from last year is considerably larger than in the past due to the tight situation seen on the training place market in previous years;

• Behaviour has changed among applicants who were unable to land a training place. Compared to last year, more applicants have apparently decided not to prematurely opt for an alternative to in-company vocational training or sign up for a "tide-over" measure and are instead hoping to be placed in the course of the follow-up placement campaign for yet unplaced applicants that began in October.

Decisions in the latter case were taken in light of the fact that the federal government, labour market authorities, trade and industry have agreed upon extensive measures for this year's follow-up placement campaign in order to open up new opportunities for unplaced applicants to find an in-company training place. These activities however will benefit first and foremost those applicants who have not yet been placed - and not those who ended up in a tide-over measure, since this latter group is classified for the time being as "placed".

Details from the statistics provided by the Vocational Guidance services:

Reported training places

The number of training vacancies reported to the Federal Employment Agency for placement fell by 26,900 - 4.9 percent - to 519,800 in 2004. The drop in the number of training places was greater in the eastern half of the country than in the western (-5.8 percent and -4.7 percent respectively). A total of 138 out of Germany's 176 employment agency districts registered fewer training vacancies in 2004 than in the previous year.

The decline was particularly large in Bavaria (-9.5 percent) and Baden-Württemberg (-6.5 percent). Thus Germany's western states saw a continuation of the trend observed last year - namely, the number of training places for which employment agencies were asked to find trainees fell in those areas that previously had very good balances. In those eleven regions in western Germany where the unemployment rate is currently less than six percent, the number of training places being reported to unemployment offices fell by an average of 11.6 percent. In the 22 regions where unemployment tops 12 percent, the decline in the number of vacant training places averaged just 2.6 percent.

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The employment agencies' placement of trainees in relation to the labour market situation - 2004

Despite this, conditions in the training place market in regions where the employment situation is generally good continues to be better as a rule than in regions that pose problems for the employment market. Not only is the number of young people reporting to an employment agency in search of a training place much larger in such regions, a greater number of young people go unplaced and there are fewer vacancies available to start with.

Unfilled training places

Some 13,400 training places were still vacant at the close of the placement year. This is 1,400 or 9.7 percent fewer than last year. Never has the supply of vacant training places been so exhausted at the end of a placement year. In western Germany, there were only 12,500 vacancies (-10.3 percent) while the number of unfilled training places in the eastern section of the country remained stable at approximately 800 (-0.1 percent).

As in years past, more training places remained vacant for occupations in the skilled trades (3.6 percent vacancies) than for occupations in trade/industry (2.2 percent vacancies) or in government service (0.8 percent vacancies). A break-down by occupation shows that the most difficult training places to fill were for training as a professional caterer (13.4 percent vacancies), industrial cleaner (9.8 percent), stuccoist (6.7 percent), butcher (6.6 percent), baker or pastry cook (6.4 percent) and salesperson in the food trade (6.0 percent). The share of training places that were still vacant at the end of the year was very small (less than 1 percent) for occupations such as industrial clerk, information technology and telecommunications system electronics technician, mechatronics fitter and film and video editor.

Registered applicants

The number of youths who registered with an employment agency as seeking a training place rose by 20,600 or 2.9 percent over the previous year to a total of 740,200. The number of registered applicants in western Germany rose by 22,500 to a total of 524,400 - primarily due to demographic changes and a growing number of unplaced applicants carried over from the previous year. By contrast, the number of applicants in eastern Germany fell - by 1,900 to 215,700 - because of the continuing decline in the number of school-leavers.

Some 58,700 of the young people who asked the employment agencies' Vocational Guidance services for assistance were looking for a training place as a retail trade clerk, another 50,200 were seeking training as an office clerk, 34,300 as a motor vehicle mechatronics technician or customer service engineer (automobile), 30,600 as a doctor's receptionist/consulting-room assistant, 27,000 as a sales assistant for retail services and 26,700 as a hairdresser. The fact that young people's preferences are concentrated on just a handful of occupations makes it very difficult for employment agencies to place them all. Due to this situation, 227,600 applicants were vying for just 101,400 openings in these occupations.

Applicants who ended up with a training place

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Destination of registered training place applicants 1992 - 2004

Last year marked the first time that more registered training place seekers ended up enrolling in a tide-over measure or alternative (48.1 percent) than finding an in-company vocational training place (47.0 percent). This year, there were more beginner trainees than applicants who took up an alternative, with 365,100 (49.3 percent) of the 740,200 training place seekers who were registered with an employment agency starting in-company vocational training.

This was 26,600 (+7.9 percent) more than in the previous year. Despite this, the percentage of applicants who ended up with a training place is still small compared to the situation in the early 1990s. The placement rate for training places has been low for the last several years. This has led to a large number of applicants who could not be placed and therefore were carried over into the next year, creating a growing "log jam" at the "first gateway". Exact figures are not available on how many youths are meanwhile looking for a training place each year. But adding the 200,000 youths who found a training place on their own (in other words, without registering with the Federal Employment Agency; please see diagram) to the some 740,200 young people registered as training place seekers yields a total of 940,000 young people who are interested in finding a training place. This number almost matches the number of school-leavers from schools offering a general education in 2004 (942,000). This of course does not mean that every one of this year's school-leavers is interested in undergoing in-company vocational training. In fact, this figure - 940,000 training place seekers - is actually a reflection of the growing number of "carry-over" applicants who completed their general education some time earlier and have not been able to find a training place to date and now join this year's group of school-leavers in the statistics as additional training place applicants. 

Applicants who have not yet been placed

Some 44,600 - 6.0 percent - of the 740,200 young people seeking a training place during the 2003/2004 reporting period could not be placed. Those applicants who did not receive a training place or opt for another avenue (such as employment or military service) or a tide-over measure (such as a prevocational training scheme) are classified as not yet placed. Two thirds (29,700) of those individuals who have not yet been placed come from Germany's western states, one third (14,900) from the eastern states.

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Unplaced applicants as a percentage of all school-leavers

As in years past, having enough training places, alternatives to vocational training or other tide-over measures to offer school-leavers continues to be very difficult in many parts of eastern Germany. However, many regions in the western states have also found it difficult in recent years to keep the number of yet unplaced training place seekers as small as possible.  

• Looking at training place seekers who had completed lower secondary level school, the share of this group that had not yet been placed was much larger (7.1 percent) than the share of unplaced training place seekers who had earned university entrance qualification (4.3 percent);
• The share of unplaced Turkish youths (8.2 percent) was larger than the share of unplaced Greek (6.4 percent) and German youths (5.9 percent); 
• The share of unplaced training place seekers who had finished school the year before or even earlier (7.5 percent) was larger than the corresponding share of unplaced training place seekers who had completed school in 2004 (4.8 percent).
  

A break-down by desired occupation shows a concentration of unplaced applicants for the following occupations: retail sales clerk (5,200 unplaced applicants), office clerk (3,500), sales assistant for retail services (2,500), hairdresser (1,900) doctor's receptionist/consulting-room assistant (1,900) and motor vehicle mechatronics technician / customer service engineer (automobile) (1,900). 

Applicants who started an alternative to training or a tide-over measure

Of the 740,200 training place applicants for the 2003/2004 placement year, 330,500 opted for an alternative or a tide-over measure (this figure includes 22,500 whose exact "whereabouts" are not known). Most of these young people (136,100) went back to school, 77,300 decided to look for a job and 34,600 enrolled in a preparation scheme for vocational training. Statistics from the Federal Employment Agency's Vocational Guidance services do not offer any information on whether the decision not to start in-company vocational training was voluntary or influenced by the tight situation on the training place market. However, more than 90,000 of the young people who participated in the surveys of training place applicants that BIBB and the Federal Employment Services conducted in 2001 and 2002 indicated that they opted for an alternative because they had not been able to find a training place. They also reported that they had written at least ten applications (in fact, some 30 on average). A maximum of 15 percent of the applicants who had embarked on something other than in-company vocational training was definitely no longer interested in such a course of training (even in the next few years).

Training place seekers who opted for an alternative but would still like to find a training place

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Applicants who have not yet been placed and applicants who are still seeking a training place despite having opted for an alternative.

Most of these 48,700 applicants enrolled in a vocational preparation scheme (18,000 or 36.8 percent) or began looking for a job (15,100 or 31.0 percent). Regardless of what these young people had opted for, they are not counted as "not yet placed applicants" and therefore do not belong to the group of persons who were officially reported as seeking a training place in 2004.

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Findings from the statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency's Vocational Guidance services as of September 30, 2004.

Most of these 48,700 applicants enrolled in a vocational preparation scheme (18,000 or 36.8 percent) or began looking for a job (15,100 or 31.0 percent). Regardless of what these young people had opted for, they are not counted as "not yet placed applicants" and therefore do not belong to the group of persons who were officially reported as seeking a training place in 2004.

Taken together, these two groups - yet unplaced applicants and applicants who still want to be placed even though they had found an alternative to in-company training - totalled 93,300 individuals in 2004 who, according to official figures from the Federal Employment Agency, were still looking for a training place as of the end of September. This is approximately 11,600 more than in 2003. The difference between this aggregate figure and the 13,400 training places that are still vacant is 79,900. This "gap" probably gives a more accurate picture of the actual size of the current shortages on the training place market than the usual calculation - the difference between the number of vacant training places and the number of unplaced applicants (31,200 in 2004) - does because the latter figure is primarily meant to provide a yardstick for efforts to offer young people at least short-term prospects.

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Entwicklung der Bildungsbeteiligungen von 1992 bis 2004

These efforts will be stepped up noticeably in the course of the subsequent placement campaign that recently began. Besides this, it is vital that steps be taken to ensure that school-leavers can take a "direct route" to vocational training in coming years. The reason: The number of young people who undergo some form of basic vocational training (such as vocational preparation schemes, a year of school-based pre-vocational training, full-time vocational school) rather than starting in-company vocational training after completing their education at a general school has risen dramatically in the last 12 years. Most recently this figure has almost equalled the number of those young people who were able to find a training place.

Authors: Joachim Gerd Ulrich, Bettina Ehrenthal, Elisabeth M. Krekel

German-language literature

• Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Troltsch, Klaus; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2004)
  Keine Besserung in Sicht? Zur aktuellen Lage auf dem Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Vol. 33, Issue 3/2004. pp. 11-14.
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2004)
  Wer ist schuld an der Ausbildungsmisere? Diskussion der Lehrstellenprobleme aus attributionstheoretischer Sicht (2004). In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Vol. 33, Issue 3/2004. pp. 15-19.
• Troltsch, Klaus; Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Ulrich, Joachim Ulrich (2004)
  Wege und Instrumente zur Steigerung und Stabilisierung der Ausbildungsbeteiligung von Betrieben - Ergebnisse von Expertengesprächen in Betrieben. In: Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Walden, Günter (Hrsg.): Zukunft der Berufsausbildung in Deutschland: Empirische Untersuchungen und Schlussfolgerungen ((Berichte zur beruflichen Bildung, Issue 273). Bielefeld: Bertelsmann (to be published in
  November 2004).
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Troltsch, Klaus (2003)
  Stabilisierung des Lehrstellenmarktes unter wirtschaftlich schwierigen Rahmenbedingungen? Aktuelle Analysen der Berufsberatungsstatistik zur Lage auf dem Ausbildungsstellenmarkt
  Forschung spezial; Issue 5
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Troltsch, Klaus (2003)
  Bilanz des Ausbildungsstellenmarktes erscheint ausgeglichener als sie ist (2003). In: BIBB-Forschung, 4. Jg., Issue 3/2003. pp. 1-2.
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2003)
  Ergänzende Hinweise aus der Lehrstellenbewerberbefragung 2002 zur Interpretation der Berufsbildungsstatistik: das Problem der latenten Nachfrage   In: Informationen für die Beratungs- und Vermittlungsdienste (ibv), No.13/03 from June 25, 2003, pp. 1.775-1.784
  

Selected BIBB publications on this subject:

• Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus
  Ausbildungsbeteiligung von Jugendlichen und Fachkräftebedarf der Wirtschaft
  Forschung spezial, Issue 8
• Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus; Ulrich, Joachim
  Nachfrage Jugendlicher nach Ausbildungsplätzen
  Analysen und Prognosen 2000 - 2015
  Forschung spezial ; Issue 2
• Koch, Richard
  Duale und schulische Berufsausbildung zwischen Bildungsnachfrage und Qualifikationsbedarf
  Ein deutsch-französischer Vergleich
• Bucher; Puhlmann, Angelika
  Demographische Entwicklung und mögliche Konsequenzen für die berufliche Bildung
  Kolloquien im BIBB, Issue2
• Schweikert, Klaus
  Aus einem Holz? Lehrlinge in Deutschland
  Eine Ost-West-Längsschnittuntersuchung

Erscheinungsdatum und Hinweis Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

Publication on the Internet: December 8, 2004

URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0107-6

Die Deutsche Bibliothek has archived the electronic publication "2004 placement statistics reveal mixed picture", which is now permanently available on the archive server of Die Deutsche Bibliothek.

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Last modified on: December 8, 2004