Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

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New training contracts in 2004
compared to 2003 - by sector

The number of new training contracts signed in 2004 was some 15,300 more than in 2003 according to a training contract survey conducted by Germany's Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training ("BIBB").⁰¹ Increases were reported in nearly every training sector: Trade and industry (+ 14,194 or 4.6%), the skilled crafts (+ 2,507 or + 4.6%), civil service (+ 1,308 or + 9.5%), agriculture (+ 181) and maritime shipping (+ 49).

Only the liberal professions reported a marked decline in the number of training contracts signed in 2004 (- 2,870 or - 5.8%). This was particularly the case with notaries public and lawyers. By contrast, pharmacists and veterinaries posted an increase. The slight decline in the domestic science field (- 23) was only marginal. All in all, the survey counted 572,980 new training contracts in 2004. This figure was 557,634 in 2003.

Even larger increase in contracts for straight in-house vocational training

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Estimated number of contracts
- in-company training and external
training 1999-2004

Unfortunately, the BIBB survey findings do not directly differentiate between contracts for straight in-company training and contracts for external ("non-company") training. However, it is possible to produce estimates with the help of data from the Federal Employment Agency.

These estimates indicate that the increase was due solely to the growth seen in contracts for in-company training.

According to these calculations, just under 520,000 new in-company training contracts were signed in 2004. This figure had been 497,000 the year before. The number of straight in-company training contracts in trade and industry probably rose by more than 18,000 (+ 6.7%), while the skilled trades saw an increase of more than 4,000 (+ 3.0%). Based on this, the increase in these two fields of training alone was probably somewhere between 22,000 and 23,000. 

This very positive development took place despite the fact that the situation on the labour market did not improve substantially. Normally, the number of in-company training contracts can be expected to increase only when there is noticeable economic growth and companies need more skilled labour.

The increase in the number of in-company training contracts that nonetheless occurred in 2004 took place during the second half of the placement year and was very likely due to arrangements that were made as part of the so-called Training Pact (http://www.fmbf.de/de/2295.php) .

Findings by state

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Increase in number of new
contracts for in-company training
in 2004 compared to 2003

Although the aggregate number of training contracts rose in 2004, not all of Germany's federal states reported an increase. The rate of change ranged from -3.8 per cent in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania to + 8.6 per cent in Bremen. However, the drops - which were observed not only in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania but also in Brandenburg (- 3.1%), Saxony (- 0.2%) and Thuringia (- 0.5%) - were due solely to the decline in the number of non-company training places.

According to current estimates, the number of straight in-company training contracts probably increased in all 16 states. In this category, the rate of change ranged from + 1.7 per cent in Bavaria to ten per cent and more in Berlin, Bremen and Saxony-Anhalt.

All 16 states reported relatively noticeable drops in the number of non-company training places on offer. The aggregate loss probably totals some 7,000 training places nationwide. The largest drop (- 4,800) was seen in non-company training contracts that were based on Section 241, Para. 2 of the Social Code III and signed with socially disadvantaged individuals or individuals with learning difficulties.

The drop in the number of non-company training places was due in part to the fact that this type of training place is supposed be used only as a secondary option and to compensate for a possible lack of in-house training places. For this reason, external vocational training that was financed through the German government's immediate action programme to reduce unemployment among young people has been discontinued. However, the decline seen here is also partly connected with the slight time-lag in filling vacant training places. At least part of this decline will be made up for by the end of the calendar year.

No relief yet on the training place market despite the greater number of in-house training contracts

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School-leavers from general schools,
training places on offer and new contracts
for training in the "dual"
vocational training system, 1992-2004

Although there has been a substantial increase in the number of in-house training contracts, the situation on the training place market continues to be very tight: The number of school-leavers from schools that offer a general education has grown since the early 1990s. Their number rose to 952,000 in 2004, an increase of some 22,500 over the previous year. Due to this demographically generated increase, the number of training places on offer per school-leaver in 2004 was no larger than in 2003.

The "training place rate" (the theoretical number of training places on offer per 100 school-leavers) was 61.6 per cent. This figure exceeded 70 per cent in 2001 and even topped 80 per cent in the early 1990s.

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Training place rate (number of training places
on offer per 100 school-leavers from
general schools) 1992 bis 2004

In addition to this, the tight situation seen on the training place market in recent years has led to more and more young people from earlier graduating classes not being able to find a training place and therefore being carried over into the next placement year ("carry-over" applicants). These carry-over applicants constitute competition for this year's school-leavers.

It is not known exactly how large the group of carry-over applicants presently is.

However, the share of young people who are registered with the Federal Employment Agency as seeking a training place and who left school at least one year earlier than the current placement year has grown sharply in the last several years. In Germany's western states, the portion of these young people out of all young people seeking a training place grew nearly ten percentage points to 45.3 per cent between 1992 and 2004. In the country's eastern states, this figure rose by 13 percentage points to 48 per cent between 1997 (earlier data is not available) and 2004.

Supply-demand ratio at a low

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Supply-demand ratio 1992 - 2004

All these trends have led to a situation in which the number of yet unplaced applicants rose noticeably - rather than falling - in 2004 despite the fact that the number of new training contracts increased. The number of still unplaced applicants as of 30 September - the official end of the 2004 placement year - totalled 44,600, approximately 9,600 more than the year before. Due to the large number of applicants the supply-demand ratio also fell.

This figure declined from 96.6 to 95.0, the lowest level ever reported in post-unification Germany.

Supply-demand ratio
The supply-demand ratio is the number of training places on offer per 100 applicants. The number of training places on offer is the sum of new training contracts ("realized supply") and the number of vacant training places as of September 30. Similarly, training place demand is calculated on the basis of the number of new training contracts ("realized demand") plus the number of applicants who have not yet been placed as of September 30. The calculation for the supply-demand ratio does not include those applicants who, according to information from the Federal Employment Agency, have not been able to find a training place and have therefore opted for an alternative or a "holding pattern" (and are therefore considered to be "provided for" for the time being) but would still like to find a training place. There were 48,712 such applicants in 2004.

Outlook for the coming years

The number of school-leavers from schools that provide a general education will increase by some 2,500 in 2005 and by another 1,400 to 956,300 in the following year. The year 2007 will see a moderate drop of some 5,200. The number of school-leavers will then however start to fall off markedly in 2008. Germany's eastern and western states will exhibit very different trends in this area:

The number of school-leavers in Germany's eastern states and Berlin began to decline back in 2002. By the year 2010, the number of young people leaving school in 2010 will be less than half the number reported in the year 2000. In 2010, there will be only 116,700 school-leavers, compared to 234,900 in 2000.

The number of school-leavers in the western half of the country will grow considerably through the year 2007, rising to 763,300 - more than 30,000 more than in the year 2004 (733,00). Their number will then decline but only to a very small degree. In the western states, the number of school-leavers from general schools will exceed the 2004 level every year through the year 2014.

For the training place market, this means that young people in the western half of the country will have to prepare themselves for a relatively tight market in the coming years - unless there is a very sharp increase in the number of training places on offer. By contrast, in the eastern states it will be the companies that will have to expect difficult conditions. They will soon have problems finding trainees and meeting their skilled labour needs with young workers.

Literature (in German)

• Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus
  Ausbildungsbeteiligung der Jugendlichen und Fachkräftebedarf der Wirtschaft  (Forschung Spezial, Issue 8). Bielefeld: Bertelsmann, 2004
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
  Wege zwischen dem Verlassen der allgemein bildenden Schule und dem Beginn einer beruflichen Ausbildung. Ein Rückblick auf die Entwicklung der vergangenen Jahre. In: Informationen für die Beratungs- und Vermittlungsdienste (ibv), No. 23 from November 24, 2004. pp. 49-60
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Ehrenthal, Bettina; Krekel, Elisabeth M.
  Durchwachsene Bilanz in der Ausbildungsvermittlungsstatistik. In:
  Bildungspraxis. Zeitschrift für die technische Aus- und Weiterbildung. No. 4/2004. pp. 10-13
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
  Wer ist schuld an der Ausbildungsmisere? Diskussion der Lehrstellenprobleme
  aus attributionstheoretischer Sicht (2004). In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und
  Praxis, 33. Jg., Issue 3/2004, pp. 15-19
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
  Ergänzende Hinweise aus der Lehrstellenbewerberbefragung 2002 zur
  Interpretation der Berufsbildungsstatistik: das Problem der latenten
  Nachfrage In: Informationen für die Beratungs- und Vermittlungsdienste (ibv), No.
  13/03 from June 25, 2003, pp. 1.775-1.784

Selected BIBB publications on this subject:

• Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus
  Ausbildungsbeteiligung von Jugendlichen und Fachkräftebedarf der Wirtschaft
  Forschung spezial, Issue 8
• Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus; Ulrich, Joachim
  Nachfrage Jugendlicher nach Ausbildungsplätzen
  Analysen und Prognosen 2000 - 2015
  Forschung spezial ; Issue 2
• Koch, Richard
  Duale und schulische Berufsausbildung zwischen Bildungsnachfrage und Qualifikationsbedarf
  Ein deutsch-französischer Vergleich
• Bucher; Puhlmann, Angelika
  Demographische Entwicklung und mögliche Konsequenzen für die berufliche Bildung
  Kolloquien im BIBB, Issue2
• Schweikert, Klaus
  Aus einem Holz? Lehrlinge in Deutschland
  Eine Ost-West-Längsschnittuntersuchung

footnotes:

⁰¹ URL: http://www.bibb.de/de/15229.htm (de)

Erscheinungsdatum und Hinweis Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

Publication on the Internet: January 13, 2005

URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0109-7

Die Deutsche Bibliothek has archived the electronic publication "Marked increase in number of in-company training contracts", which is now permanently available on the archive server of Die Deutsche Bibliothek.

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Last modified on: November 22, 2011