The Current Situation on the Vocational Training Market

These and other warning reports made the headlines in the daily press during the summer of 2008. The reports sounded strange in light of the fact that talk up to that time was - at most - about a major shortage of training places and not about a shortage of applicants. In years past, firms in Germany's eastern states were inundated with applications. But now many reported that they could count the number of incoming applications on just one or two hands. The first preliminary placement figures for the 2007/2008 reporting year released by the National Pact for Career Training and Skilled Manpower Development on 13 October 2008 also point towards a turnaround on the training market: "In some ... occupations, it will be increasingly difficult to fill all of the available training places".¹ In fact, some 2,800 training places for in-company vocational training in Germany's eastern states remained vacant - the largest number since the early 1990s.
The massive demographic slump is the reason why it is increasingly difficult to fill vacant training places in the eastern states. The number of young people in Germany has declined sharply and this trend has now reached the vocational training market. Only 137,900 training place applicants were registered in eastern Germany in 2008, some 48,500 (26%) fewer than just one year earlier. Of this 137,900 only 56,700 were just fresh from secondary school (in other words, had completed their secondary schooling during that placement year). Ten years ago, this figure was 143,600. The majority of the applicants from eastern Germany in 2008 were older youths who had left secondary school some time ago (77,800) - many of whom had not had any success to date in landing a training place.

This demographic trend at least further improved the chances of training place applicants in Germany's eastern states in 2008 (Chart 1). All in all, 54% found a vocational training place (2007: 51%) and only 3% were classified as 'unprovided' (applicants who did not end up with a vocational training place or an alternative to vocational training) at the end of the reporting year. The unprovided rate was 5% a year earlier. On the other hand, the share of youths in the eastern states who are undergoing vocational training is not nearly as sizable as these figures or the above newspaper headlines would seem to indicate. Although many applicants had been placed at least for the time being, this often took the form of alternatives - such as a practical or prevocational training - that do not lead to full vocational qualification. Some of the individuals who opted for an alternative to in-company vocational training wanted to switch to in-company vocational training as quickly as possible, even at the end of the reporting year. The number of applicants who were still looking for an in-company training place at the end of the reporting year - 13,900 - was therefore much greater than the number of vacancies (2,800). The number of training place seekers would have been considerably larger if 12,800 applicants from the eastern states had not been placed in extra-company training places that lead to full vocational qualification. Thus the data for 2008 provide an ambiguous and in some cases seemingly contradictory picture of the vocational training market in Germany's eastern states. On the one hand, it is increasingly difficult for firms to find applicants for their training places. On the other hand, the number of youths who do not succeed in finding an in-company training place continues to be quite high. Apparently it is becoming harder to match supply with demand.

The data point to similarly mixed conclusions for the western states: Here too the number of youths is declining, albeit at a slower pace than in the eastern states. A total of 482,100 training place applicants were registered in the western states, some 65,200 (-12%) fewer than before. The number of vacant in-company vocational training places grew to 16,700, the highest level since 2002. There were regions, particularly in the southern parts of Germany, where there are already more in-company training places being registered than training place seekers; in some Employment Agency districts (such as Munich and Rosenheim), more than 10% of the registered in-company training places remained vacant. Nonetheless, 82,400 training place applicants in the western states were still looking for a training place at the end of the training year, including 10,100 unprovided individuals (who did not have an alternative option to date) and 72,300 who are currently participating in an alternative to in-company vocational training (such as vocational preparation schemes) but continue to look for an in-company training place.

In light of reports of applicant shortages, particularly in Germany's eastern states, and the emerging difficulties of matching training place supply with training place demand, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research asked the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in August 2008 for an expertise on the current and future situation on the vocational training market, with a focus on the eastern states. The findings from this expertise are presented below:

1. Introduction

The situation on the training place market is subject to constant change. In contrast to the past when the number of school leavers from general schools either remained relatively stable or increased, both the present and future trend are moving in another direction. Current estimates indicate that the number of school leavers will drop sharply in the coming years in the wake of demographic shifts. This will have consequences for both the supply and demand side of the vocational training market. According to various reports, bottlenecks in filling vacant training places are already being experienced to a growing degree, particularly in Germany's eastern states. For example, it was repeatedly reported that the skilled trades still had 10,000 training places that were not yet filled as of August 2008.² Not only the current demographic trend but also the fact that many youths lack the fundamental knowledge and attitudes necessary for successful vocational training were cited as reasons for this. In addition, the charge has been raised that youths are being 'steered in the wrong direction' by government programmes. It is said that government programmes encourage youths to apply for extra-company vocational training places with the result that in-company training places remain vacant.

This expertise examines the current situation on the training place market in the eastern states as well as what the situation can be expected to look like in the future. Where appropriate, the situation in the western states is used in the following analysis and statements for purposes of comparison in order to better illustrate the situation on the training place market in the eastern states.

In order to assess the above-mentioned problems and their importance, special attention when examining the supply of training places will be directed to the results of the surveys on recruiting strategies, issues that firms face, and the training places firms plan to offer. The BIBB Ausbildungsmonitor (BIBB Vocational Training Monitor) survey for the period March/April 2008 provided the basis for the evaluations here. The analyses include an examination of the question of whether there are already too few applicants for training places in the eastern states and how firms (and craft enterprises in particular) plan to meet their skilled labour requirements in the future and whether they are even aware of this issue.

In the case of training place demand, the trend among school leavers from general secondary schools and the demand indicated by the Vocational Training Market Statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency for the eastern states will be examined more closely and statements made regarding forward projections of potential demand.

This expertise is rounded out with a presentation of findings from selected studies conducted by other institutions plus a list of press offerings and literature on the subject of the training place market in Germany's eastern states.

3. Training places on offer in Germany's eastern states (Gericke/Troltsch)

3.1 Problems that craft enterprises in the eastern states face when filling training places for the 2008/2009 vocational training year - Findings from a current company survey (Gericke/Troltsch)

In the spring of 2008, 2,400 enterprises that were chosen on a representative basis were asked about their vocational training plans for the year, the training places they offered and about their experience with training place applicants.³ The following findings refer to the 2008/2009 vocational training year.

The companies surveyed said that, up to the date of the survey in March/April, they had received an average of approximately five applications for each training place they had on offer. By contrast, craft enterprises in the eastern states reported only some 1.5 applicants on average for each training place on offer. At that point in time, 4.7 applicants for each training place in the skilled crafts and trades were counted in Germany's western states. Training places that fall under the purview of a chamber of industry and commerce draw an average of nine to ten applications per vacancy in both the eastern and western states. This provides an initial indication - at least for the first half of the 2007/2008 placement year - for potential problems in the skilled crafts and trades sector in the eastern states.

One reason for the difficulties experienced in filling training places could possibly be the fact that enterprises in the eastern states were as a rule still uncertain four months before the start of the new training year whether they wanted to offer training places at all for the 2008/2009 training year (Table 3.1.1). Only 16.3% - approximately one in every six - of the enterprises in the eastern half of the country could say with certainty in March/April that they would be providing in-house vocational training (western states: 26.7%). This figure falls to 13% when craft enterprises in the eastern states are asked (western states: 48.8%). As of March/April, nearly 60% of the craft enterprises surveyed in the eastern states had not yet reached a final decision on whether they would meet their skilled labour needs in the coming training year by providing their own in-house vocational training (western states: 14.8%). A total of 81.7% of these craft enterprises (western states: 68.1%) said that their decision would depend on whether their order position improved in the future.

One of this reasons for this 'wait and see' approach is that a large share of the craft enterprises (64%) in the eastern states tends to decide on a short-term basis according to their needs on how many training places they will offer (western states: 49.4%); 14.4% tend to gear themselves at short notice to the overall availability of suitable applicants (western states: 28.8% - Table 3.1.2). This explains why firms pursue different recruiting strategies. At the time of the survey, the entire range of possibilities for finding suitable applicants was already exhausted as a rule in the western states and particularly among enterprises falling under the purview of a chamber of industry and commerce in the eastern states. By contrast, the majority (81%) of craft enterprises in the eastern states report their vacant training places to the regional Employment Agencies (western states: 46.6%) and 81.6% wait for the initiative to come - in the form of an application - from school leavers themselves (western states: 41.2% - Table 3.1.3). The tactic of recruiting trainees from the ranks of those individuals who had completed a practical with their firm ranked third among craft enterprises in the eastern states with 22.7% (western states: 67.2%).

Looking at prior schooling, there are no particular indications for a lack of the necessary fundamental knowledge and attitudes among applicants that would explain the shortage of applicants in the skilled crafts and trades. The youths who most recently applied for a training place in the skilled crafts and trades sector in the eastern states were better qualified on average than their counterparts in the western states: 83.9% had an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate (western states: 28.6%), only 12.4% had a lower secondary school leaving certificate (western states: 65.7%). The percentages of upper secondary school leavers were generally comparable (Table 3.1.4). However, since the overall number of applicants for training places in craft enterprises in the eastern states is small, this data can provide only a provisional picture of the applicant structures broken down by level of school leaving certificate.

Just under 3% of the craft establishments surveyed in the eastern states said that for the year 2007 they had been able to fill none or only some of the training places they had on offer (western states: 14.2% - Table 3.1.5). Consequently, the fact that the stock of vacant training places grew this year appears to be a new development. This shows that especially for craft enterprises as a whole ⁴ it was not just the lack of applicants (16.9%), the lack of suitable applicants (92.5%) or the fact that the training places they offered were not attractive (23.2%), but especially the craft enterprises' inadequate publicising and promotion of their own training places that ultimately led to their training places remaining vacant (70.8% - Table 3.1.6).

Apparently, craft enterprises in the eastern states are relatively certain on average about their skilled labour needs in the next two years: One out of every ten enterprises will "definitely" (western states: 10.6%) and two out of every three (64.6%) will "possibly" (western states: 73.6%) be able to fill their vacancies in the next two years. These figures are 20.6% and 34.1% for all firms in the eastern states (Table 3.1.7). In this connection, crafts enterprises in the eastern states plan more on using skilled labour with several years' work experience to meet their labour needs (86.5% compared to 62%) and less on filling vacancies with their own trainees (35.8% compared to 60.6%) than their counterparts in the western half of the country do. In this connection, craft enterprises in the eastern half of the country also rely more on providing continuing vocational training for their own unskilled/semi-skilled workers (52.4% compared to 22.6% - Table 3.1.8).

3.2 Training place offerings since 1999 - Findings from employment statistics (Troltsch)

The Betriebsdatei (company statistics) segment of the employment statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency was used for the following special evaluation. Information on in-house vocational training that had actually been conducted and the filling of training places for the period 1999 through 2006 is available as a result. Since the Betriebsdatei does not list the chamber affiliation of the individual enterprises, the following evaluation uses company size as an indicator. Supplementary information is provided regarding trends in in-company vocational training place offerings broken down by economic sector.

Looking at the eastern states, the results show major, disproportionately large cuts in in-company vocational training capacity among the small enterprises with fewer than ten employees and smaller medium-sized enterprises with fewer than 50 employees (Table 3.2.1a to 3.2.1c). Measured by the average development in the eastern states, training capacity in these company size classes, where craft enterprises account for the largest shares, was reduced by an especially large degree - this in addition to the fact that the development of in-company vocational training in the eastern states has seen a marked negative development compared to the average development observed in Germany as a whole.

Particularly since demographic causes for the shortage of applicants can be largely ruled out for this period, it is to be assumed that these developments could be a key reason for the current problems that crafts enterprises and small firms in the eastern half of the country are experiencing when filling training places. This is because, faced with the much smaller number of training places being offered in recent years, youths have correspondingly shifted their focus in their choice of occupation or have applied for a training place in Germany's western states. The slight stabilisation at a low level seen starting in 2005 in those company size classes which particularly cut back on their training places is a first indication for a possible turn-around in the trend of cutting training places.

Looking at the findings in detail, the extent of the cuts must be especially emphasised. Nearly 56,000 in-company training places in the eastern half of the country were eliminated between 1999 and 2006. Enterprises with fewer than 50 employees accounted for virtually all of these cuts (Table 3.2.1a). The number of training places being offered in the eastern states has fallen to 86.4% of the level reported in 1999 (Table 3.2.1b). The percentage drops seen among enterprises with fewer than 50 employees peaked at 35% during this period. This trend was also unfavourable given that this group of enterprises accounted for more than 60% of the in-company training places offered in 1999. Diverging from the general trend observed in the eastern states, only enterprises with 50 or more employees were able to keep their cuts in training capacity within reasonable limits or increase the number of training places they offered for youths (Table 3.2.1c).

Labour market-related problems (Tables 3.2.2a to 3.2.2c) constitute the primary causes for the downward trend in the vocational training being offered in the eastern states. Here, in-company vocational training is closely linked to employment levels. As a result, the sharp drop of nearly 700,000 jobs in the eastern half of the country has had a direct impact on the number of training places being offered (Table 3.2.2a). Larger medium-sized enterprises and large companies with 50 or more employees provided the only exception here, reporting smaller cuts than small enterprises did (Table 3.2.2b) and - contrary to the general trend seen in employment in the eastern states - they were able stabilise their training capacity somewhat (Table 3.2.2c).

4. Training place demand in Germany's eastern states (Kroll/Ulrich)

4.1 School leavers from general secondary schools (Kroll)

The number of school leavers from general secondary schools will decline in some cases markedly in the coming years. This will particularly be seen in Germany's eastern states. Current forecasts regarding school leavers from general secondary schools in the eastern states already show some 23,200 (12.4%) fewer school leavers in 2008 compared to 2007. Compared to the figures from the 1999 reporting year, the total number of school leavers in the eastern states has fallen from 234,557 to 164,364, an approximately 30% decline in a 10-year period (see Table 4.1.1). According to forecasts, this trend will continue in the coming years and will probably bottom out in the eastern states in the year 2011 when some 111,000 youths leave the general secondary school system. This would be a further decline of some 33% over 2008 which is already having an impact on the number of persons applying for in-company vocational training.

4.2 Registered training place applicants in Germany's eastern states according to the vocational training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency (Kroll)

Based on the vocational training market statistics published by the Federal Employment Agency,⁶ the number of registered applicants in the eastern states in 2008 (some 138,000) was already markedly lower than the year before when approximately 186,000 applicants were registered (-26%). The decline was the sharpest among school leavers from lower secondary schools and intermediate secondary schools - those groups which are particularly important sources of applicants for in-company vocational training places (Table 4.2.1 and Chart 4.2.1). The situation is even more pronounced when one compares the current figures with those from the 1998/99 reporting year. Here, the number of applicants in the eastern states has fallen by almost half (-45%, from 250,046 to 137,889). Although the trend in the western half of the country is in the same direction, it is definitely not as dramatic. Looking at the figures for the 2007/08 reporting year, the number of reported applicants in the western states fell by only 12% over the previous year (547,362 in 2006/07 compared to 482,113 in 2007/08) and when the 2007/08 reporting year is compared with the 1998/99 reporting year the decline was only 13% (552,602 in 1998/99 compared to 482,113 in 2007/08).

4.3 Registered training place applicants in the eastern states according to the vocational training market statistics of the Federal Employment Agency, broken down by occupational group (Kroll)

Looking at the figures for applicants for in-company vocational training places broken down by occupational group, it can first of all be said that applicant numbers have fallen sharply in manufacturing occupations, service occupations and also miscellaneous occupations (see Table 4.3.1 and Chart 4.3.1). The decline is the most noticeable in manufacturing occupations, namely a 30% drop over the previous year (76,471 compared to 53,588). Here too, the trend is particularly evident when one compares the current figures with those from the 1998/99 reporting year. In the case of manufacturing occupations, the number of registered applicants fell by 49% (104,488 in 1998/99 compared to 53,588 in 2007/08). The pattern is similar - although not as pronounced - in service occupations and miscellaneous occupations.

Compared with applicant figures from ten years ago, the sub-group of construction and construction-related occupations (which counted large numbers of trainees) including carpenters among the manufacturing occupations has faced a particularly sharp decline in applicant numbers. They have fallen by 66% - from 41,755 in the 1998/99 reporting year to 14,118 in 2007/08. Looking at service occupations, the group consisting of organisational, administrative, clerical occupations reported a 50% decline, the largest loss in the years between 1998/99 and 2007/08.

4.4 Forecast for potential demand (Ulrich) ⁷

How many youths will be available for 'dual' vocational training (which combines part-time vocational schooling with practical work experience) in the future? The quantitative trends in three sub-groups must be taken into account when assessing the level of potential future demand in Germany's eastern states:
School leavers from general secondary schools,
School leavers from vocational schools and
Unplaced applicants from previous years, in other words, youths who are (continue to be) interested in an in-company vocational training place and who have been out of (general or vocational) school for some time already.

All three of these groups have a more or less close link with demographic trends. In addition, the number of unplaced applicants from previous years depends on the conditions on the vocational training market. The size of all three groups will shrink markedly in the coming years due to the sharp decline in the population that will be seen particularly among younger persons. This is the case for the western states but is especially so for Germany's eastern states.

The upper section of Tables 4.4.1 to 4.4.3 contain updated forecasts for the future number of school leavers from general and vocational schools and for the anticipated number of unplaced applicants from previous years for the western states, the eastern states and for Germany as a whole.⁸ It is evident that all three sub-groups will shrink noticeably in the coming years.

However, not every school leaver has the intention of undergoing vocational training through the dual vocational training system. Therefore the size of the potential demand that is actually available to the dual vocational training system is smaller than the sum of all school leavers. Potential demand can be defined as the total number of all youths who are interested in a training place in the dual vocational training system, irrespective of their actual qualification or suitability and other possible obstacles that stand in the way of actual, effective demand.⁹ The fact that school leavers from different types of schools exhibit different levels of interest is taken into consideration in this connection. Corresponding empirical values were inferred from the BIBB school leaver surveys and projected unchanged for future years.

Calculations regarding the future development of potential demand can be found in the lower sections of Tables 4.4.1 to 4.4.3. It was assumed here that some 75% of the school leavers from general secondary schools who had earned a lower secondary school leaving certificate at the most were interested in starting vocational training in the same calendar year if possible. This figure was set at 60% for school leavers with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate and approximately 25% among school leavers who had earned university entrance qualification. Looking at graduates from vocational schools, it was assumed that the largest shares of individuals who are interested in in-company vocational training are to be found in those groups of individuals who had completed a prevocational training year (85%) or who had completed a basic vocational training year (90%). This figure was assumed to be 65% among graduates from full-time vocational school who have not earned full vocational qualification and 50% among graduates from specialised vocationally-oriented upper secondary schools and among graduates from specialised academic upper secondary schools. Add to this the potential demand from unplaced applicants from previous years.¹⁰ This latter demand was not supposed to be simply set at 100% but rather estimated on the basis of the number of unplaced applicants from previous years who were registered with the Federal Employment Agency and whose interest in undergoing in-company vocational training was still evident at the end of the placement year, either because they had begun vocational training or were still seeking a training place at that time. According to the findings from the training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency, this applied to 63.5% (western states) and 69.5% (eastern states) of the applicants in 2007 who had left the general school system the previous year and to 47.6% (western states) and 45.8% (eastern states) of the applicants who had left school even earlier.

Total potential demand can be calculated by projecting the shares cited here to the size of the respective group in the coming years and adding the results.

As the right-hand column in Table 4.4.2 shows, potential demand in Germany's eastern states in particular will shrink enormously within an extremely short period, from 213,900 in 2005 to only 95,100 in the year 2012 (for comparison: 125,100 training contracts were signed in the eastern states in 2007). The decline in potential demand between last year (194,200) and this year (160,000) totalled 34,100 persons (-18%). Next year, potential demand will shrink another 28,100 (-18%). Consequently, by the year 2010 potential demand will be less than the number of training contracts signed last year.

The variant presented here is an 'optimistic' calculation since potential demand is calculated on the basis of all school leavers. In other words, this calculation also includes all those individuals who left school without earning a certificate. Their prospects on the vocational training market are however very limited. When school leavers who did not pass their final examination are not included in this calculation, the resulting figures are markedly lower (see the following chart and table).

According to the second, more narrowly formulated calculation, potential demand in Germany's eastern states can be expected to develop as follows:

According to this calculation, potential demand in the eastern states is already some 136,500 in 2008 - scarcely more than the total number of new training contracts that were registered the previous year (125,100, including an estimated 94,300 contracts for in-company vocational training, see above). Potential demand will fall considerably short of this level in the years 2009 and 2010 with just 111,100 and 90,800 respectively . This means that the vocational training market in Germany's new states has already contracted substantially this year at the expense of the enterprises there and that this trend will lead to a massive shortage of young skilled labour in the coming years.

This will be all the more so given that a pronounced east-west migration among youths has been observed in the eastern half of the country to date (see below), further reducing the potential demand that could be used by the home vocational training market. It is still unclear how much this level of mobility will change as the situation on the vocational training place market eases substantially (from the youths' point of view).

4.5 Development of extra-company vocational training places on offer (Ulrich)

A gradual reduction in the number of extra-company vocational training places on offer in the coming years constitutes one option for cushioning the effects of the sharp drop in potential demand.¹¹ The Federal Ministry of Education and Research has already responded correspondingly and reduced the number of training places that are subsidised through the Training Place Programme for the Eastern States by some 30% - approximately 3,000 places - to around 7,000 at the start of training in the 2008/09 training year.¹² In contrast to the supplementary offerings from the Training Place Programme for the Eastern States which were conceived for youths who basically have the fundamental knowledge and attitudes required for successful vocational training but who are disadvantaged in the training place market, the funding programmes organised by the Federal Employment Agency and its branch offices which are responsible for ensuring the basic minimum income level of jobseekers in accordance with Volume II of Germany Code of Social Law are aimed at socially disadvantaged youths who have learning difficulties. Their numbers will also fall noticeably already in 2008. According to current findings from the vocational training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency, only 17,892 such training places were created in the 2008 reporting year - 4,217 fewer - 19% less - than in the same month of the previous year.¹³

In all probability, it will not be possible to do without extra-company training places in the coming years. The reason behind this (as is particularly evident from the quantitative difference between the first and second variants of the calculations of future potential demand): The eastern states will also continue to have a large number of school leavers which firms consider - on the basis of the individual's poor marks (even though he/she has earned a certificate) or lack of a school certificate - not to have the fundamental knowledge or attitudes necessary for successful vocational training and who are consequently not taken into consideration for in-company vocational training. These youths however will probably be absorbed into the system, in particular through the Federal Employment Agency's special programmes for disadvantaged youths.¹⁴ The Vocational Training Place Programme for the Eastern States - which is primarily aimed at youths who basically have the fundamental knowledge and attitudes that are necessary for successful vocational training but are disadvantaged in the training place market - will however be discontinued.¹⁵

Related literature / Supplementary information

On the subject of training places on offer:

• Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research): Berufsbildungsbericht 2008 (Report on Vocational Education and Training for the Year 2008). Bonn: 2008. URL: http://www.bmbf.de/pub/bbb_08.pdf
• Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research): Berufsbildungsbericht 2007 (Report on Vocational Education and Training for the Year 2007). Bonn: 2007. URL: http://www.bmbf.de/de/10798.php
• Troltsch, Klaus; Geiss, Sabine; Huber, Simone: Ausbildungsstellenmarkt zwischen ungenutzten Ausbildungskapazitäten und steigendem Fachkräftebedarf. Erster Kurzbericht zum Ausbildungsmonitor des Bundesinstituts für Berufsbildung in Kooperation mit TNS Infratest. Bonn: 2007. URL: www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/ab21_wirueberuns_Erster_Kurzbericht_zum_Ausbildungsmonitor_2007.pdf
• Troltsch, Klaus; Walden, Günter: Beschäftigungssystem dominiert zunehmend Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. Zur Responsivität des dualen Ausbildungssystems. In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis (BWP), No. 04/07. Bonn: 2007
• Troltsch, Klaus: Ausbildungsbereitschaft von Betriebe - am künftigen oder bisherigen Fachkräftebedarf orientiert? In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis (BWP), No. 03/08. Bonn: 2008
• Troltsch, Klaus; Gericke, Naomi; Saxer, Susanne: The training bonus - Does it get unplaced training place applicants into vocational training? Findings from research and work conducted by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training. In: BIBB Report 05/08. Bielefeld: 2008. URL: https://www.bibb.de/en/14066.php

On the subject of training place demand:

• Große Deters, Fenne; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Entwicklung des Nachfragepotentials nach dualer Berufsausbildung bis 2020. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. Bonn: 2008. pp. 9-28. URL: http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
• Kroll, Stephan; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Wege zur Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. Bonn: 2008. pp. 29-41. URL: http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
• Beicht, Ursula; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Which youths do not undergo/complete formal vocational training? Analysis of important determinants, with special consideration given to the individual's education biography. In: BIBB Report 6/08. Bielefeld: 2008. URL: https://www.bibb.de/en/14050.php
• Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael; Ulrich, Joachim [Ed.]: Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen. Bielefeld: 2008. ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Eberhard, Verena: Die Entwicklung des Ausbildungsmarktes in Deutschland seit der Wiedervereinigung. In: Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd [Ed.]: Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen. Bielefeld: 2008. ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Trendwende auf dem Ausbildungsmarkt? Die aktuelle Lage im Spiegel der Statistik. In: Ausbilder-Handbuch, 91st Supplement: March 2007, pp. 3-26
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Krekel, Elisabeth M.: The situation of carry-over applicants in Germany - Findings from the 2006 applicant survey conducted by BIBB and the Federal Employment Agency. In: BIBB Report 01/07. Bielefeld: 2007. ISSN 1865-0821 and at https://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/a12_bibbreport_2007_01.pdf