Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

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Neu abgeschlossene Ausbildungsverträge
im dualen System und Absolventen aus
allgemein bildenden Schulen 1992 bis 2005

Background information on the BIBB survey for the period up to 30 September: All training contracts concluded between 01 October of the previous year and 30 September of the current year were included. The contracts were counted separately for individual trades at the level of the employment agency districts. Subsequent contracts are registered separately and, unlike in the vocational education and statistics of the Federal Statistical Office (StBA), not added to the total number of new contracts, since as a rule the latter stipulate a training period of at least 24 months.⁰¹  The relevant agencies notify the BIBB of new training contracts concluded before the end of November. The first evaluation results are then available at the beginning of December and are used for the Vocational Education and Training Report of the Federal government. Since the counting period of the BIBB survey and the business statistics review period of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) are identical, supply (new contracts plus vocational training places remaining unfilled) and demand (new contracts plus applicants not placed) can also be determined. - Since April 2005 the legal basis of the BIBB survey has been § 86 of the amended Vocational Training Act (BBiG).

 
Reasons for the Decline

There are various reasons for the repeated decline by 22,800 in the number of newly concluded training contracts. We might mention

•  the continuing significant reduction in employment. From the beginning of October 2004 to the end of September 2005, another 330,900 jobs subject to social insurance coverage were lost;
• the reduced need for replacement trainees owing to the much smaller number of fully trained graduates leaving in comparison to the preceding year;
• a sharp reduction in the number of for the most part publicly funded ("off-the-job") training places for market disadvantaged, socially disadvantaged young people and those with learning problems and disabilities by an estimated 9,000;
• a slowdown in the delayed placement business: As a result, a major proportion of the supplementary places provided could not be occupied within the legally specified time period (01 October to 30 September). The number of "off-the-job" places registered with the Federal Employment Agency in October and November 2005 thus increased by more than 4,100 over the preceding year and will be taken into account in the 2006 survey;
• Special features of the statistical treatment of places in the field of introductory qualifications. The commitment of enterprises in this field is not taken into account because introductory qualifications does not lead to a fully qualifying vocational certificate. Between October 2004 and September 2005 the Federal Employment Agency recorded 15,515 entries into introductory training for young people (EQJ).

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Development of the number of socially
insured jobs and of newly concluded
company training contracts at the end
of each business year on 30 September

The decisive factor for the reduction in the number of training contracts, however, are probably the developments in the employment system. The dual system of vocational education and training, closely linked with the employment system, has not been unaffected by the structural crisis in the labour market. From September 1999 to September 2005 about 1.358 million socially insured jobs in Germany were lost.
The trend in newly concluded training contracts has been more favourable since 2003 than was to be expected in view of the decline in employment. In the preceding years the reverse was true. This is probably a positive consequence of the "Training Pact" concluded in 2003. However, a complete uncoupling of the training performance of the enterprises and administrations from the development of employment requirements is not attainable.
Thus a radical improvement in the conditions on the apprenticeship market is probably only to be expected if there is an increase in employment.

 
Development by Field of Training/Area of Responsibility

With the exception of ocean shipping, all fields of training were affected by the decline in the number of new training contracts concluded. It should be noted that in some Federal States the transfer of responsibilities for the public service and home economics fields of training to the Chambers of Industry and Commerce places limits on the direct comparison with the preceding year.

In the industry and commerce areas of responsibility the number of new contracts fell by 6,594 (-2.0%), in the trades by 11,265 (-6.7 %), in the public service by 959 (-6.3 %), in agriculture by 406 (-2.7%), in the liberal professions by 2,921 (-6.3 %), and in home economics by 757 (-15.5 %). There was an increase in the number of training contracts concluded only in ocean shipping, where it rose by 102 (+52.0 %).

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Changes in newly concluded training
contracts in 2005 compared to 2004
by fields of training

Trends with regard to contracts for company training

Unfortunately the BIBB survey cannot distinguish directly between the contracts for company training and the ("non-company") training contracts that are for the most part publicly funded. With the help of data from the Federal Employment Agency, however, estimates can be made (more on the estimation procedure at http://www.bibb.de/de/23281.htm)). According to initial, still provisional calculations there were about 505,000 compan-based training contracts nationally in 2005. That was just under 14,000 (-2.6%) less than in 2004. Only in 2003 was the number even smaller: 497,000. Using the data of the Federal Employment Agency on extra-company training places recorded, it is possible to make rough estimates of the development of the 100% company-based contracts by area of responsibility as well. According to such estimates the decline from the preceding year in the number of company-based contracts in the field of industry and commerce will have been about 2,700, so that the bulk of the overall decline in the number of all training contracts in industry and commerce would be attributable to the development of these "extra-company" contracts (-3,900). In the trades, according to initial estimates, the number of 100% company-based contracts dropped by about 9,500 ("extra-company" -1,800), and in agriculture the volume of new company-based contracts would have remained more or less constant ("extra-company" -400).

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Estimated numbers of company and
mostly publicly funded training contracts,
reference date 30 September 1999-2005

Findings by Federal States and Regions, West and East

As far as the total number of training contracts is concerned, there was a decline in 2005 in all sixteen Federal States. The rate of change oscillated between
-0.3 % in Saarland and -12.7 % in Saxony-Anhalt. In the old Federal States the figure was on average somewhat smaller than in the eastern part of Germany; however, it should be borne in mind that owing to the delayed subsequent placement, which started later and ran on into the fourth quarter, some of the publicly funded training places provided in the East have not been counted in the 2005 survey. The period of coverage here is from 01 October 2004 to 30 September 2005.

With regard to the company-based contracts, judging from the preliminary estimates currently available, there must even have been increases in some Federal States, such as Hamburg, Saarland and possibly Berlin, for example. They were not sufficient, however, to make up for the declines in the other Federal States.

The number of for the most part publicly funded ("extra-company") apprenticeships dropped sharply in the period covered in almost all of the sixteen Federal States, according to the preliminary estimates. In the old Federal States the reduction probably amounted to about 4,000 places (-21%) and in the new Federal States (including Berlin) to about 5,000 (-14%). The number of extra-company training contracts concluded with socially disadvantaged persons and those with learning disabilities in accordance with § 241 (2) Social Code (SGB) Book III fell most sharply (by almost 7,000). The number of places for persons undergoing rehabilitation (-2,500) and for participants from the Immediate Action Programme (-600), which has now ended, also declined. The number of places from the Training Place Programme for Eastern Germany and the supplementary measures in the Eastern German States, on the other hand, increased by just under 600.

If the data is examined separately for the 176 employment agency districts (with the Berlin agencies considered as one district), we find that the number of new contracts fell in 145 regions and increased in 31 regions - among them 27 in the western and four in the eastern part of Germany. The dependence of the direction and intensity of the change on the previous year's trend is clearly discernible:

In the regions where the changes were predominantly positive in 2004 the drop-offs were on average more pronounced in 2005. This was especially the case in the old Federal States. This could be an indication that some of the regions were already able to activate major company training reserves in 2004 but were unable to repeat the relevant increases in 2005 but instead fell to a level closer to that of 2003. The other regions, on the other hand, developed more steadily during 2004 and 2005.

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Changes in number of newly
concluded training contracts

Relationship between Supply of and Demand for Training Places

The supply of training places has traditionally been defined in terms of the number of new training contracts concluded plus the number of training places still open, and the demand of young people for training places in terms of the number of new training contracts plus the number of training applicants registered with the Federal Employment Agency who could not be placed before 30 September.⁰²  By this definition there was a supply of 562,816 training places in the period under review (from 01 October 2004 to 30 September 2005) compared to 591,080 applicants, which computes as 95.2 training offers per 100 applicants ("supply/demand ratio").
If this figure is compared to that of the previous year we find that on paper the supply/demand ratio actually improved slightly, for the number of training applicants determined by the above formula decreased even more sharply in 2005 (-26,476 or -4.3%) than the training place supply (-23,558 or -4.0%).
The number of applicants not yet placed (unvermittelte Bewerber - UVB) and counted among the unsuccessful applicants sank from 44,576 to 40,900 (-3,676). The number of places open (unbesetzte Ausbildungsstellen - UBA), on the other hand, declined by only 758 to 12,636.

When the supply/demand ratio is calculated, however, those training place applicants are not included in the calculation on the demand side who have been determined by the Federal Employment Agency to have fallen back on alternatives and waiting loops because their applications have been unsuccessful (and are thus listed as "taken care of" for the time being) but would still like to be placed in an apprenticeship. In 2005 these numbered 47,228 (2004: 48,372). Also not included are 7,808 registered training place applicants who have found entry into introductory training for young people (EQJ) (this was not registered in 2004). Representative polls among applicants registered with the Federal Employment Agency show that in addition there are among the other remaining alternative applicants (281,765 in 2005) several tens of thousands of young people who only started taking odd jobs, returned to school or enrolled in a vocational preparation scheme because their training place applications were unsuccessful despite intensive searching.

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Supply/demand ratio 1992 to 2005

Actually the proportion of young people who acquire basic vocational education and training in school establishments or in vocational preparation schemes after leaving schools of general education has undergone a massive increase in recent years. In 2005, the proportion may have been for the first time greater than the rate of entry into the dual system of vocational education and training (precise figures will not be available until Spring 2006).

The reasons for the massive increase in attendance of these courses of education are many and varied. They are not always "waiting loops" in the narrow sense; often they are chosen voluntarily because the young people hope to improve their preliminary qualifications in this way and in many cases they are necessary because the young people's apprenticeship entry maturity leaves something to be desired (link to the leading article: Maturity for an apprenticeship - a bone of contention for experts too).In addition, they have helped keep the number of jobless young people under the age of 20 relatively low despite the decline in the supply of apprenticeships in recent years. Whether the number of these young people who really end up some day in vocational education and training will be as high as in the past, however, remains an open question. Since precise data in this regard is not available, the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training is currently making preparations for a corresponding study. In terms of mathematics, however, the proportion of young people who take up vocational education and training with the goal of obtaining a vocational qualification by either choosing company-based apprenticeship, extra-company training or school-based education is lower than at the beginning of the nineties. This gives us reason to fear that the proportion of young people who are left permanently without a vocational qualification (in recent years this has been the situation of about 11% of young Germans and about 38% of young people of other nationalities) will increase again.

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Development of relative attendance
of courses of education 1992 to 2005

Development Outlook for the Coming Years

This trend is all the more problematic because the number of young people will not remain at the present level very long but will decrease dramatically. That could lead to a substantial shortage of skilled workers in the future.
As the projections of the Federal Statistical Office show, the number of graduates of schools of general education in the East will decrease drastically in the immediate future.

In the West the figure will remain at the present level until about 2013 with a few spikes connected with the changeover from 13 to 12 years of schooling. After that, however, it will drop drastically as well. Taken together, the trends in East and West mean that the number of school leavers will be more or less as high as in 2005 only once, in 2006.

Current literature on the subject of development of the training place market

Beicht, Ursula; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
Auszubildendenzahlen 2004: Entwicklung der außerbetrieblichen Ausbildung sowie Gesamtentwicklung in den Ausbildungsbereichen
http://www.bibb.de/de/23281.htm

Brosi, Walter (2005)
Aktuelle Probleme der dualen Ausbildung in Deutschland.
In: Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (eds.): "Wir brauchen hier jeden, hoffnungslose Fälle können wir uns nicht erlauben!" Wege zur Sicherung der beruflichen Zukunft in Deutschland.
Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann Verlag, pp. 41-60.

Brosi, Walter; Troltsch, Klaus (2004)
Ausbildungsbeteiligung der Jugendlichen und Fachkräftebedarf der Wirtschaft.
Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann. (Forschung Spezial; Issue 8)

Eberhard, Verena; Krewerth, Andreas; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2005)
"Man muss geradezu perfekt sein, um eine Ausbildungsstelle zu bekommen." Die Situation aus Sicht der Lehrstellenbewerber.
In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis 34 (2005) 3, pp. 10-13. 

Ehrenthal, Bettina; Eberhard, Verena; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2005)
Ausbildungsreife - auch unter den Fachleuten ein heißes Eisen.
http://www.bibb.de/de/21840.htm

Flemming, Simone; Uhly, Alexandra; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2005)
Verwirrung um den Lehrstellenzuwachs 2004.
http://www.bibb.de/de/18599.htm

Troltsch, Klaus; Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2004)
Wege und Instrumente zur Steigerung und Stabilisierung der betrieblichen Ausbildungsbeteiligung - Ergebnisse von Expertengesprächen in Betrieben.
In: Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Walden, Günter (Hrsg.)
Zukunft der Berufsausbildung in Deutschland: Empirische Untersuchungen und Schlussfolgerungen
Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann, pp. 53-93 (Berichte zur beruflichen Bildung; Issue 273)

Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2004)
Wege zwischen dem Verlassen der allgemein bildenden Schule und dem Beginn einer beruflichen Ausbildung. Ein Rückblick auf die Entwicklung der vergangenen Jahre. 
In: Informationen für die Beratungs- und Vermittlungsdienste (ibv), No. 23/04 of 24  November 2004, pp 49-60. 

Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2004)
Wer ist schuld an der Ausbildungsmisere? Diskussion der Lehrstellenprobleme aus attributionstheoretischer Sicht.
In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis 33 (2004) 3, pp. 15-19. 

Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2005)
Probleme bei der Bestimmung von Ausbildungsplatznachfrage und Ausbildungsplatzangebot. Definitionen, Operationalisierungen, Messprobleme.
In: Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (Hrsg.)
Der Ausbildungsmarkt und seine Einflussfaktoren. Dokumentation der Fachtagung der Arbeitsgemeinschaft Berufsbildungsforschungsnetz vom 01./02. Juli 2004. 
Bonn: BIBB, pp. 5-36. 

Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Krekel, Elisabeth M.; Flemming, Simone (2005)
Training place market still very tight.Fewer applicants find a training place than last year
http://www.bibb.de/en/22024.htm

footnotes:

⁰¹ For the differences between the survey of new training contracts concluded by 30 September and the statistics up to 30 September see: http://www.bibb.de/de/18599.htm
⁰²  The 2005 figures in the vocational guidance statistics of the Federal Employment Agency are provisional.

Erscheinungsdatum und Hinweis Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

Publication on the Internet: January 19, 2006

URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0166-3

Die Deutsche Bibliothek has archived the electronic publication "Number of Newly Concluded Training Contracts Drops to Lowest Level since German Reunification", which is now permanently available on the archive server of Die Deutsche Bibliothek.

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Last modified on: November 29, 2011