Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

Just under 53% of all young people commencing an apprenticeship in Germany in 1993 were aged under 18. By 2006, this proportion had decreased by just over 18 percentage points to 34%. The ratio of those aged at least 20 when beginning training moved in the opposite direction from just over 20% to a level of 33% (cf. Figure 1). The average age of all those commencing training reached 19.3 years in 2006.⁰¹

The shift towards training entry at a later age which took place until the end of 2006 can only partially be explained by the fact more young people with University of Applied Sciences or university entrance qualifications were being taken on as trainees. A more significant factor was the increasing delay in beginning training on the part of school leavers from lower secondary level not in possession of a higher education entrance qualification. Transition to training has become markedly more difficult for this group of young people.⁰² The following section will deal with the period of time which elapses before entry to an in-company apprenticeship takes place

The basis of the analyses is a representative survey of 7,230 young people aged between 18 and 24 reporting retrospectively on their educational and vocational development. The data survey took place within the scope of the BIBB research project "Educational pathways and vocational biographies of young people and young adults following general schooling" (the so-called "BIBB Transitional Study")⁰³ and was conducted between June and August 2006. Computer aided telephone interviews (carried out by infas, Bonn) served as a vehicle for recording participants' overall educational and vocational biography since beginning primary school. The analyses forming the object of the present study include only the 2,656 young people seeking an in-company training place immediately upon completion of schooling. This encompassed 65% of those with an intermediate school leaving certificate and 74% of those with a maximum of lower secondary school leaving certificate.

Figure 2 shows the increase in the accumulated proportion of those making the transition to in-company vocational education and training over the course of the months following the end of schooling.⁰⁴ Results have been calculated using the Kaplan-Meier Method and are indicated separately for those with an intermediate school leaving certificate and those with a maximum of lower secondary school leaving certificate. The graph is based on weighted data whereas the test statistics stated in the table below are based on unweighted data.⁰⁵ As the test statistics indicate, there are significant differences between the two groups of school leavers. Over the whole of the five-year observation period, the accumulated progression proportion is not as high for young people with the lower secondary school leaving certificate than for those with an intermediate school leaving certificate.

These marked deviations are apparent directly after the end of schooling.⁰⁶ After three months, 61% of young people in possession of an intermediate school leaving certificate have commenced in-company training compared with only 43% of those with a maximum of lower secondary school leaving certificate. These differences narrow at least to a small extent after a period of approximately one year has elapsed since the end of schooling, the progression figures for those with the intermediate school leaving certificate and those with a maximum of lower secondary school leaving certificate then being 73% and 62% respectively. The accumulated transition proportions for both groups of school leavers climb more slowly in overall terms in the subsequent period. After two years, the ratios are 81% for young people in possession of an intermediate school leaving certificate and 69% for those with the lower secondary qualification. The proportions after three years are 86% and 75% respectively. At the end of the period of observation, 60 months after the end of schooling, 91% of young people with an intermediate school leaving certificate have attained their goal compared to only 77% of those with a lower secondary school leaving certificate. This means that just under a quarter of lower secondary school leavers seeking a training place have not succeeded in commencing an in-company apprenticeship.

In addition to the school leaving certificate, a series of further determinants also exerts an influence on the length of transition to in-company vocational education and training, having the effect of shortening or prolonging this period. Figure 3 lists aspects relating to individual qualification, social characteristics, characteristics relevant to the training place market, aspects of family background and aspects in respect of young people's local social integration. This itemisation is restricted to characteristics demonstrated to have exerted a statistically significant effect within the scope of a Cox Regression.

Since some of the determinants taken into account here are inter-dependent, Figure 4 investigates whether there is any correlation between them and also acts as the vehicle for determining the extent of any such correlation. This correlation matrix can also be deployed in conjunction with Figure 3 to identify indirect effects on the process of transition to in-company training. This enables the investigation of such aspects as whether family background leads to better achievements at school and whether these exert a positive effect on application chances.

The results listed in Figures 3 and 4 combine to provide the following overall picture.

• School leavers wishing to commence in-company vocational education and training immediately on leaving general schooling are particularly likely to achieve their aim in the shortest time possible if they are individually in possession of above-average qualifications. By no means does this necessarily imply that they merely need to be able to demonstrate a higher level school leaving qualification. The best possible average marks are often more crucial.
• Family background plays an important role. Children of parents who have been educated to a higher level are more successful at school (cf. the relevant correlation coefficients in figure 4). This provides them with greater training place opportunities as well as manifestly providing them with benefits above and beyond. It is, for example, conceivable that such children will receive more extensive and better advice from their parents in issues relating to career choice, seeking an apprenticeship and application strategy. A frank and problem oriented discussion climate at home is shown to be of benefit. This in turn increases the probability of the more rapid realisation of a young person's wish to obtain a training place (cf. Figure 3). Better qualified parents also seem to be able to open up direct access routes to training places for their children on a more frequent basis. This would certainly explain why children of fathers who are in skilled work do not need to wait as long for the commencement of vocational education and training.
  
  Figure 5 shows a model for the effects exerted on the transition process to in-company vocational education and training by favourable and unfavourable prevailing conditions at home (derived from the results of the Cox Regression reported in Figure 3). "Favourable conditions" mean: a) both parents are in possession of a school leaving certificate and a vocational education and training qualification, b) the father is in skilled work and c) problems at school are always discussed at home in an unrestricted and frank manner. "Unfavourable conditions" mean that none of the three aspects a) to c) is in place. All other influencing variables (gender, school leaving certificate etc.) remain constant in arithmetical terms, meaning that the characteristics of further determining factors are in line with their respective average values. This means that the difference in the curves presented in Figure 5 shows the pure effect of the family situation.
  
  This effect is certainly significant. Whereas the average period (median) until transition to vocational education and training takes place is only three months in the case of a favourable constellation, such a period extends to twelve months if the constellation is unfavourable.
• Young people are able to use social integration at a local level as a means of obtaining a greater number of access routes to training. Those who are actively involved with the fire brigade, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW), an emergency medical and rescue service or similar during their time at school are demonstrably able to find a training place more rapidly than others (cf. Figure 3).
• Young people and their parents are not, however, entirely in control of their own destiny. All young people find it more difficult to progress to an in-company training place if the training market becomes tighter and accordingly need more time to achieve their goal. The collapse in training place supply during 2001/2002 means that tougher hurdles have been in place for those who have left school since 2002 compared to cohorts from earlier years.⁰⁷ Region of residence is also a factor. The training market in the eastern part of Germany has been chronically fraught thus far, the result being that progression to in-company training by young people in East Germany is becoming ever less frequent.⁰⁸
• The transitional process is of above-average length for young people from a migrant background. The fact that these young people are more likely than their peers only to be in possession of a lower secondary school leaving certificate and to have somewhat lower average marks is certainly a significant cause of this. The parents of migrant children are also less well qualified and exhibit a lesser degree of social integration at a local level (cf. the correlation coefficients in Figure 4). These observations are not, however, sufficient to explain the negative influence which a migrant background exerts on the transition from school to vocational education and training (cf. Figure 3). It seems fair to say that a migrant background is in itself a disadvantage in terms of seeking to obtain an apprenticeship. It is not possible to determine the role played individual reasons (such as possible prejudices on the part of the authorities) within the scope of the present work.
• Young women also have significantly worse opportunities of obtaining an in-company training place despite the fact that they demonstrate better school leaving certificates and better marks (Figure 4).

The previous section identified individual characteristics determining the length of time recently required by young people to make the transition to in-company training. This does not, however, yet explain why this transition has generally become more difficult since the 1990's. The primary reason why the transitional process for school leavers has become delayed in overall terms is the drifting apart of supply and demand both qualitatively and quantitatively. The aim of the following section is to use further data sources to highlight this.

From a qualitative point of view, most companies and experts are of the view that there has been a decline in young people's apprenticeship entry maturity despite increased training requirements. In quantitative terms, the considerable decrease in the supply of training places available which took place until 2005 has been accompanied by a steady growth in the number of school leavers.

Increased training requirements, decline in apprenticeship entry maturity

Attention initially needs to be drawn to the increased training requirements within the context of the changes taking place in the world of work. In the BIBB Expert Monitor conducted in the autumn of 2005, 97% of the 482 VET specialists interviewed expressed the view that the complexity of the world of employment had increased over the past 15 years. 90% believed that there had also been a rise in theoretical requirements for the teaching professions (cf. Figure 6). The qualifications of those applying for a training place had also tended to deteriorate over the past 15 years in the opinion of a majority of experts. More than three quarters of experts thought that there had been a decline in mastery of German spelling, writing skills, simple mental arithmetic, powers of concentration, ability to work out percentages and apply the rule of three and basic skills relating to the calculation of lengths, surface areas and volumes. It was conspicuous that this was a view which was decidedly shared by teachers (cf. Eberhard/Ehrenthal/Ulrich, 2006). This means that the results indicate a widening qualitative gap between the requirements and aptitude profile, and this may be the reason why many school leavers are no longer able to make a direct transition to in-company vocational education and training and why they are more likely to have to rely on interim educational courses which they use to improve their skills.

An ever widening gap has also opened up in quantitative terms over the course of recent years as the period leading up to 2005 saw a massive shrinkage in the scope of training place provision in the wake of the negative development in employment whilst demographic reasons also caused a significant increase in the number of school leavers. There was a fall of 159,000 in the number of training places available between 1992 and 2005, contrasting with a rise of 179,500 in the number of persons completing general schooling. All this had meant that for some considerable the dual system of vocational education and training had been unable to meet the constantly growing demand for training places on the part of young people. The same is true even if the volume of demand is restricted in quantitative terms so as to encompass only young people displaying apprenticeship entry maturity (cf. Eberhard/Krewerth/Ulrich, 2006). The fact that the decrease in training provision was not equally spread across all occupational segments meant that the reduction in the supply of training places available brought particular consequences in its wake for young people with a lower secondary school leaving certificate. Whereas it is even possible to discern an upwards trend in overall terms in the service sector occupations despite considerable fluctuations in both directions, there was a drastic decline in the number of apprenticeships available in the manufacturing occupations (cf. Figure 7). Construction sector occupations and construction related occupations underwent a particularly negative development (cf. Figure 8). The result of this was that the reduction in the number of training places particularly affected occupational segments largely the domain of lower secondary school leavers competing amongst themselves, the fact being that young people with higher level school leaving qualifications usually prefer "white collar occupations".

The consequence of this development for lower secondary school leavers was that more of them had to apply for the training places available in service sector occupations.  Although there had been an increase in the amount of training provision available in these occupations in absolute terms, the period between 1994 and 2005 also saw the number of school leavers in possession of an intermediate school leaving certificate rise by 22% or 69,800. The consequence of this was that even intermediate secondary school leavers found the applications situation in commercial and other service sector occupations more difficult (cf. Ulrich, 2007). The resultant dilemma for the lower secondary school leavers was that they had to seek increased refuge in a market which did not in fact offer them any additional capacity. By the same token, the decline in application opportunities for intermediate school leavers in the service occupations also meant that they needed to turn to commercial occupations in greater numbers.

Although it is likely that many companies welcomed this development given the increased requirements which also pertained in the manufacturing occupations, it proved fatal for young people whose highest qualification was the lower secondary school leaving certificate. Without good school leaving qualifications, the chances for such young people of successfully applying for a vocational training place were and remain slim (cf. also Friedrich/Hall, 2007).

The vocational training provided within the so-called transitional system underwent considerable expansion in order to accommodate young people without a training place. In 1992, a total of 272,300 young people progressed to vocational preparation schemes, to the school-based prevocational training year, to partly qualifying full-time vocational school and to the 11th class at specialised upper secondary schools. By 2005, the corresponding figure had reached 558,500 (cf. Eberhard/Krewerth/Ulrich, 2006). The fact that these young people continued to be interested in subsequent vocational education and training in most cases occasioned a strong increase in the number of unplaced applicants from previous years and brought an attendant rise in the average age of young people seeking a training place in its wake. The figure for unplaced applicants from previous years is likely to have exceeded 300,000 persons in 2066 (cf. Ulrich/Krekel, 2007b on this).

Although the average age of those commencing training has increased constantly over recent years, this development is the result of a delay in the transition to vocational education and training on the part of school leavers not in possession of a higher education entrance qualification (cf. also Hillmert, 2001) rather than being due to an ongoing expansion in education. A chronic deficit in training place provision, an increase in training requirements and growing problems with the skills of some school leavers have all contributed to a significant delay before young people seeking a training place are able to commence in-company vocational training compared to the situation which prevailed at the beginning of the 1990's. This development has affected lower secondary school leavers to an even greater degree than school leavers in possession of the intermediate secondary school leaving certificate.

Young people able to demonstrate higher school leaving qualifications continue to enjoy above-average opportunities within the increased market competition for in-company training places. Although virtually all VET experts are prepared to concede that even those with poor marks may display the necessary degree of apprenticeship entry maturity (Eberhard, 2006), this does not mitigate the strongly selective function exercised by school marks. The dilemma for school leavers with poor marks on their certificates but who are mature in terms of apprenticeship entry seems to be that they are frequently unable to secure an invitation to application tests and recruitment interviews within an environment where there is an excess of demand.

This renders it difficult for such young people to provide evidence of apprenticeship entry maturity insofar as they are unable to use alternative routes (such as practical placements or introductory qualifications) to establish direct contact with companies. Given the large number of applicants, the fact that companies use prior school learning (level of school leaving qualification and school marks) as one of their main pre-selection criteria is also understandable. There is firstly an extremely clear correlation between school marks and results in final training examinations (Fintrup/Kämper/Mussel, 2007), and secondly it seems fair to assume that the slight correlation between school performance and apprenticeship entry maturity is positive rather than negative.

Young people involved in local organisations such as the fire brigade, Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) or an emergency rescue service obtain a competitive advantage on the training market. Such commitments are likely to be associated with no fewer than three factors fostering the transitional process.

a) Young people undertaking such commitments practise important social skills which also promote their apprenticeship entry maturity ("qualifying function"). Since they are normally required to state extra-school leisure activities in their applications, it is likely that b) the local commitment the young people display represents an important and positive sign for human resources decision makers ("signalling function"). c) The commitment the young people bring to the fire brigade, Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) or an emergency rescue service enables them to establish broadly based social networks and make the acquaintance of important persons exercising a cross-generational function at a local level whilst also probably allowing them to obtain more opportunities for achieving informal access to an in-company training place ("networking function").

In other words, the voluntary work which young people undertake enables them to increase their skills related cultural and social capital. The special significance of this commitment within local associations and other organisations to the development of young people deserves more public attention than it has hitherto been accorded (cf. also Lerner/Alberts/Bobek, 2007).

As far as the dual system of vocational education and training is concerned, educational opportunities are also manifestly capable of being "inherited" irrespective of environment (cf. also Alt, 2006; Friebel et al., 2000). It is certainly apparent that young people from parental homes where educational achievement is poor have significantly lower opportunities of making the fastest possible transition to vocational training and tend to exhibit a worse level of school performance. Another factor is that their parents seem less frequently able to provide them with direct assistance in seeking a training place.

The lower level of training opportunities afforded to young people from a migrant background is a cause for concern. Such a lack of opportunity is only partly attributable to region of residence, family background and above-average educational level in overall terms. Although no further internal differentiation between young people from a migrant background has been undertaken within the scope of the analyses presented here, other investigations, including the Transitional Panel conducted by the German Youth Institute (DJI), indicate that the problems focus mainly on young people from a Muslim background (cf. Reißig/Gaupp, 2006; Granato/Skrobanek, 2006).

The transitional opportunities for young women are conspicuously low in overall terms, at least with regard to in-company training. The reasons for this include the occupational structure of the dual system of vocational education and training and the vocational preferences of girls. Even though the number of apprenticeships in the service sector today already exceeds those available in manufacturing industry, the latter branch still accounts for two in five training places. Girls, however, seldom express an interest for such apprenticeships. In the year 2005, for example, only just under 11% of female applicants registered at the Federal Employment Agency stated that a manufacturing occupation was their primary occupational objective. The corresponding figure for boys was 61% (cf. Federal Employment Agency, 2006).

The result of this relatively one-side focus on service sector occupations by girls is that half of all female trainees are to be found in only ten occupations. In the case of boys, only a third is concentrated in the ten most popular occupations (Granato, 2006, p. 143). The consequence of this is that young women are distributed unfavourably across existing training provision and meet with a particularly high degree of competition from both genders in their preferred occupations. They are then less likely to be successful in their applications despite the fact that they exhibit a better level of prior learning at school in overall terms.

School leavers who have failed to make the transition to in-company vocational training at the first attempt, putting them into the category of "unplaced applicants" are faced with the question of what constitutes the best interim alternatives. This issue is particularly significant if school-based or extra-company training courses cannot be considered. Since selection criteria hardly change in all further application procedures and given the fact that individual skills play a crucial role (cf. Ulrich/Krekel, 2007a), any interim solutions which bring about a discernable improvement in these skills are of benefit. It seems likely that the subjective view of human resources recruiters is the crucial criterion in determining which educational courses within the transitional system best serve this objective. The results of the 2006 applicants' survey conducted by the Federal Employment Agency (BA) and the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) have demonstrated that the acquisition of higher level school leaving qualifications (such as a University of Applied Sciences entrance qualification by young people who previous qualification was the intermediate secondary school leaving certificate) exhibit a particularly positive correlation with the further application opportunities for unplaced applicants from previous years. Practically related vocational preparation schemes such as introductory qualifications, however, also significantly enhance transitional chances (cf. Ulrich/ Krekel, 2007b). A further important issue, although not dealt with in detail in the present report, is the effect which a longer period of fruitless searching for a training place impacts on young people in terms of how experiences of "failure in the market" exert a reciprocal effect on educational motivation (cf. Solga, 2006). There is a considerable risk that young people will give up once a certain point has been reached, especially if they are left to their own devices.

Schemes such as the school-based prevocational training year (known by its German abbreviation of BVJ) may provide crucial benefits to the extent that they provide an attendant opportunity to maintain contact with young people and stabilise their motivation levels (cf. Schreier, 2006). The transitional quotas achieved after conclusion of the BVJ are of questionable significance in terms of offering a dominant beneficial criterion to the extent that "the structural problem of insufficient training places and the lack of work provision" inevitably place constraints on the transitional effectiveness of the BVJ (Rahn, 2005, p. 234; cf. also Skrobanek/Mittag, 2006).

The prevailing situation on the labour and training market and demographic development determine the crucial general conditions under which the procedures and results of transitional processes operate. The bottom was reached in 2005 when the number of newly concluded training contracts fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the 1990's within the throes of a long-term period of weak economic growth. This contrasted with an increase in the number of school leavers and unplaced applicants from previous years to a level unprecedented since the reunification of Germany. Notwithstanding this, change is expected in the future.

Both employment and training provision have been on the rise again since as long ago as 2006. Present expectations are that this development will continue at least in the medium term (cf. Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, 2007). This will be accompanied by a fall in the number of young people (cf. Figure 9 and Figure 10), meaning that future development holds out hope for an easing of the training places market. The speed with which a significant improvement in the situation can be achieved, however, depends on provision for unplaced applicants from previous years, the number of which is still tending to increase at the moment. Although the total number of applicants registered at the Federal Employment Agency fell by 17,100 or 2.4% during the first ten months of the current placement year⁰⁹, this was accompanied by a rise of 14,400 or 4% in the subgroup of applicants who had left school earlier than 2007. Corresponding age shifts have become discernable amongst registered applicants. Although there have been significant decreases in the numbers of applicants aged under 18 (a fall of 43,100 or 14 %), there has been a slight rise in the numbers of applicants aged 18 and 19 (up 2,800 or 1 %) and a considerable growth in the numbers of those aged 20 and older (a rise of 23,200 or 12 %). For this reason, current policy initiatives are being targeted at improving the chances of unplaced applicants from previous years.¹⁰

Given the prospects that the market situation will ease in future, will the results presented here relating to the transitional problems of school leavers not in possession of a higher education entrance qualification not soon be irrelevant or at best be of only historical value? This will certainly not be the case. Although the improvement in the relation between supply and demand will lessen the competitive pressure between young people to a certain extent, the characteristics of the market in terms of the filling of training places will remain intact. This will mean that those with good qualifications will continue to enjoy the best opportunities of securing the most sought after training places in future, and other factors forming the object of the present investigation (such as family background, gender, migrant background and social integration of young people at a local level) will not be quick to lose their significance in terms of achieving a successful transition.
A further factor is that companies will not reduce selection standards to an unlimited extent even given a growing shortage of applicants. To this extent, it is likely that the issues of "skills of school leavers" and "apprenticeship entry maturity" will become more relevant rather than declining in importance. Whereas many companies today are still able to take a relatively relaxed view of the lack of aptitude displayed by some training place applicants in the light of the availability of other appropriate applicants, the probability is that these alternatives will increasingly disappear over the course of the next few years. Companies will become increasingly insistent that school leavers have adequate skills at their disposal. The relation between training places which remain vacant and unsuccessful applicants will be one of the indicators of whether this can be achieved.