One of the key questions of the evaluation was: To what extent has it been possible, as a result of the suspension of the AEVO, to tap existing potential for creating additional training places? There are two aspects to this question:
- How many companies could be persuaded to start providing in-house vocational training for the first time and how many new training places could be gained as a result?
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How many companies that were already providing in-house vocational training were put in a position to take on even more trainees thanks to the suspension of the AEVO?
To answer the first question, the analysis examined the group of firms (including new firms) that began providing in-house vocational training after the year 2002 for the first time or that returned to providing in-house vocational training after 2002 following a long period of non-provision. This group numbered some 170,000 according to data from the Federal Employment Service. Of these companies, those 12% were selected which had indicated that the suspension of the AEVO had "facilitated" their taking up in-house vocational training. Thus 20,500 firms said this for the entire period from 2003 - 2006. This translates into an average of approximately 5,100 firms every year that started providing in-house vocational training for the first time.
It is very likely however that this figure overestimates the actual effect that the suspension of the AEVO has had. The reason: Another analysis shows that more than half of those firms that said that the suspension of the AEVO "facilitated" their taking up in-house vocational training already had personnel who meet the AEVO's formal requirements. Consequently, these firms would probably have continued to have the right to provide in-house vocational training even had the AEVO remained in force (and even without an exemption). Taking into account only those enterprises for whom the suspension of the AEVO facilitated their getting involved in providing in-house vocational training and which do not have personnel with the qualifications required by the AEVO, there remains a subgroup of approximately 5% or around 8,500 additional training companies for the entire period from 2003 - 2006, or approximately 2,100 per year.
When one assumes that the entire subgroup of firms with AEVO personnel would have provided in-house vocational training even if the AEVO had not been suspended, the actual quantitative effect would probably lie somewhere between these two calculated values, in other words, roughly 8,500 to 20,500 new training companies for the entire period or in the area of 2,100 to 5,100 new companies per year.
The information provided by the firms surveyed was also used to determine the number of training places that were created in these new training companies. Companies that said that the suspension of the AEVO had made it easier for them to get involved in providing in-house vocational training reported that they took on an average of approximately 3.3 new trainees during the four training years from 2003/04 through 2006/07. Projecting on the basis of 20,500 firms, this translates into approximately 67,000 new training contracts for the entire period or some 17,000 new contracts per year. Looking at the subgroup of companies that do not have personnel with the qualifications required by the AEVO, these figures are approximately 17,000 new training contracts for the entire period or 4,250 per year. The companies in this subgroup signed an average of two new training contracts.
To answer the second question, all companies were selected that had already provided in-house vocational training prior to 2003 (some 500,000 based on data from the Federal Employment Agency) and which still had trainees after 2002 (73% of these companies according to the results of the survey), in other words, approximately 365,000 training companies. Out of this group, those companies were chosen that said the suspension of the AEVO had offered them the chance to "provide more training". This group constitutes a good 5% of the 365,000 companies (in other words, approximately 20,000) which could take on more trainees during the years from 2003 through 2006 than would have been possible (from their point of view) had the AEVO remained in force. These were most likely companies that as a result of the suspension of the AEVO had, for example, the chance to provide training for occupations for which they had not had personnel to date with the qualifications required by the AEVO.
There are special problems involved in estimating the number of training contracts that came about as a result of the suspension of the AEVO because it was unlikely that a direct pre-quoted question regarding this number would lead to valid information. However assuming that it was at least one additional training place per company during the period 2003 - 2006, one arrives at a minimum value of 20,000 for the entire period or 5,000 training places per year.
An attempt to quantify the total effect of the suspension of the AEVO leads to the following figures:
- The number of companies which indicated that the new arrangement made it easier for them to start providing in-house vocational training or made it possible for them to take on more trainees ranges between nearly 30,000 and approximately 40,000 for the entire period (2003 - 2006) or approximately 7,000 to 10,000 per year.
- The span is much larger for the number of additional training places which could be made available more easily as a result of the suspension of the AEVO. This figure probably lies between approximately 40,000 and 100,000 during the entire period (2003 - 2006) or 10,000 to 25,000 per year.
Neither the upper limit nor the lower limit of the above ranges can be used as realistic figures for calculating the increase in the number of training companies and training places. It is to be assumed that the actual increase lies somewhere in the middle of these ranges. The reason: The statements of the responding companies should not be interpreted as meaning that the suspension of the AEVO was the sole reason for their decision to provide in-house vocational training.
Most of the firms that decided to get involved in providing in-house vocational training for the first time were small enterprises with between one and nine employees (67%) or enterprises with 10 to 19 employees (28%). A breakdown by economic sector shows that the suspension of the AEVO was primarily of benefit to service providers (38%) and commercial enterprises (28%).
Looking at the companies for whom the suspension of the AEVO made it possible to take on more trainees, enterprises with 10 to 19 employees (53%) dominated, followed by small enterprises with one to nine employees (32%). With regard to economic sectors, the list was again topped by service providers and commercial businesses (Fig. 3).