Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

1. Introduction

The situation on the training place market is subject to constant change. In contrast to the past when the number of school leavers from general schools either remained relatively stable or increased, both the present and future trend are moving in another direction. Current estimates indicate that the number of school leavers will drop sharply in the coming years in the wake of demographic shifts. This will have consequences for both the supply and demand side of the vocational training market. According to various reports, bottlenecks in filling vacant training places are already being experienced to a growing degree, particularly in Germany's eastern states. For example, it was repeatedly reported that the skilled trades still had 10,000 training places that were not yet filled as of August 2008.⁰²  Not only the current demographic trend but also the fact that many youths lack the fundamental knowledge and attitudes necessary for successful vocational training were cited as reasons for this. In addition, the charge has been raised that youths are being 'steered in the wrong direction' by government programmes. It is said that government programmes encourage youths to apply for extra-company vocational training places with the result that in-company training places remain vacant.

This expertise examines the current situation on the training place market in the eastern states as well as what the situation can be expected to look like in the future. Where appropriate, the situation in the western states is used in the following analysis and statements for purposes of comparison in order to better illustrate the situation on the training place market in the eastern states.

In order to assess the above-mentioned problems and their importance, special attention when examining the supply of training places will be directed to the results of the surveys on recruiting strategies, issues that firms face, and the training places firms plan to offer. The BIBB Ausbildungsmonitor (BIBB Vocational Training Monitor) survey for the period March/April 2008 provided the basis for the evaluations here. The analyses include an examination of the question of whether there are already too few applicants for training places in the eastern states and how firms (and craft enterprises in particular) plan to meet their skilled labour requirements in the future and whether they are even aware of this issue.

In the case of training place demand, the trend among school leavers from general secondary schools and the demand indicated by the Vocational Training Market Statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency for the eastern states will be examined more closely and statements made regarding forward projections of potential demand.

This expertise is rounded out with a presentation of findings from selected studies conducted by other institutions plus a list of press offerings and literature on the subject of the training place market in Germany's eastern states.

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2. Summary of the findings

• The massive demographic slump played a role in the situation on the training place market in Germany's eastern states for the first time in 2008. This decline will continue through the coming years and lead to a substantial shortage of young labour for companies in the region. The number of training place applicants who were registered with the Federal Employment Agency was only some 138,000 as of 30 September 2008, approximately 50,000 fewer than a year before. The number of training place applicants in the eastern half of the country has fallen by nearly half since the year 1999 when some 250,000 applicants were reported.
• However, not all youths who are looking for an in-company training place are also registered with the Federal Employment Agency. The potential demand - defined as the sum of all youths who are interested in receiving in-company vocational training (this includes unplaced applicants from previous years) was probably about 160,000 in 2008, when all school leavers from general secondary schools and vocational schools - including those youths who left school without earning a final certificate - are counted. When the latter group (youths without a certificate) is disregarded this figure comes only to about 136,000. A comparison with the number of new vocational training contracts signed last year (approximately 125,000) makes it clear that there are hardly any reserves for firms to draw on when selecting new trainees. This is all the more so given the fact that training place applicants from eastern Germany have been extremely mobile to date and a strong practice has developed among training place seekers in the eastern states in recent years of including the western half of the country as well in one's efforts to find a training place.
• Potential demand in 2009 will probably still be around 111,000 (school leavers who have a certificate from a general secondary school or vocational school and are interested in undergoing in-company vocational training, unplaced applicants from earlier years) and then fall to 91,000 in 2010 and subsequently slide to just 79,000 in 2011. 
• It appears that offsetting the decline in the number of qualified applicants by recruiting youths who have not earned a certificate or whose marks were not very good is possible only up to a point despite the tighter conditions on the training place market. Enterprises are emphatically looking for "sufficiently qualified" trainees and appear to be willing only to a certain extent to take on applicants who they consider do not have the fundamental knowledge or attitudes necessary for successful training.
• All in all, enterprises in Germany's eastern states exhibit uncertainty regarding the supply of training places. Only one in every six companies in the eastern states (16.3%) could say with certainty in March/April 2008 that they would be providing in-company vocational training. This figure was just 13% among craft enterprises in the eastern states. One of the reasons for this is that some 64% of the craft enterprises in the eastern states tend to decide as needed at short notice how many training places they will offer. But it also appears that craft enterprises in the eastern states are relatively sure on average about what their skilled labour needs will be for the next two years. The strategies firms pursue when recruiting skilled workers show that they are more likely to try to meet their needs with skilled workers who have several years' occupational experience, rather than through trainees they train themselves. Craft enterprises also rely to a greater degree on providing continuing training for their own unskilled / semi-skilled workers in order to meet their skilled labour needs. 
• On the other hand, the analyses showed that the cuts in training capacity were disproportionately large in small enterprises with fewer than ten employees and in smaller medium-sized companies with fewer than 50 employees. Nearly 56,000 in-company training places were cut in Germany's eastern states between 1999 and 2006 - and nearly all of the cuts were undertaken in enterprises with fewer than 50 employees. Labour market-related problems were the primary reason behind the cuts.
• There are still 'hidden reserves' that firms could tap to improve the applicant situation, one in particular being a gradual reduction in the number of extra-company training places (of the some 125,000 training contracts signed in 2007, an estimated 31,000 were for extra-company vocational training and some 94,000 for in-company vocational training). The Federal Ministry of Education and Research responded in a timely manner and reduced the number of training places that are funded through the Training Place Programme for Eastern Germany by approximately 30% - in other words, by 3,000 training places - to some 7,000 with effect from the start of the 2008/09 training year. At the same time, it was agreed to give priority to filling in-company vocational training places over extra-company training places. In addition, the Federal Employment Agency and the branch offices which are responsible for ensuring the basic minimum income level of jobseekers have already reduced the number of extra-company training places for socially-disadvantaged youths and youths with learning difficulties by 4,200 (-19%).
• As long as there are school leavers in Germany's eastern states who companies feel do not have the fundamental knowledge or attitudes necessary for successful vocational training due to their lack of a final school leaving certificate or poor marks (despite earning a certificate) and therefore do not come into question for in-company vocational training, it will not be possible to abruptly or completely do without extra-company training places in the coming years. Furthermore, even when the number of extra-company training places is steadily reduced, the potential demand in the years ahead will not be enough to satisfy companies' need for trainees which will be an estimated 100,000 in-company trainees a year.
• The more dramatic these problems become for enterprises, the more urgent the task will be of ensuring that as many as possible of those pupils who are still available acquire the fundamental knowledge and attitudes necessary for successful training. Otherwise there is the danger that not only will a growing number of in-company vocational training places in the eastern states remain vacant but also that a larger share of youths will remain without a training place. It appears that youths can be better helped when this assistance is provided as early as possible during their general schooling. Experience from past years shows that rather than being an isolated event, choosing an occupation is a complex, time-consuming process. The current campaigns to provide sound vocational guidance starting as early as the eighth form, accompanied by systematic feedback and increased use of volunteer job guides with individualised guidance for youths are aimed in the right direction.

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3. Training places on offer in Germany's eastern states (Gericke/Troltsch)

3.1 Problems that craft enterprises in the eastern states face when filling training places for the 2008/2009 vocational training year - Findings from a current company survey (Gericke/Troltsch)

In the spring of 2008, 2,400 enterprises that were chosen on a representative basis were asked about their vocational training plans for the year, the training places they offered and about their experience with training place applicants.⁰³  The following findings refer to the 2008/2009 vocational training year.

The companies surveyed said that, up to the date of the survey in March/April, they had received an average of approximately five applications for each training place they had on offer. By contrast, craft enterprises in the eastern states reported only some 1.5 applicants on average for each training place on offer. At that point in time, 4.7 applicants for each training place in the skilled crafts and trades were counted in Germany's western states. Training places that fall under the purview of a chamber of industry and commerce draw an average of nine to ten applications per vacancy in both the eastern and western states. This provides an initial indication - at least for the first half of the 2007/2008 placement year - for potential problems in the skilled crafts and trades sector in the eastern states.

One reason for the difficulties experienced in filling training places could possibly be the fact that enterprises in the eastern states were as a rule still uncertain four months before the start of the new training year whether they wanted to offer training places at all for the 2008/2009 training year (Table 3.1.1). Only 16.3% - approximately one in every six - of the enterprises in the eastern half of the country could say with certainty in March/April that they would be providing in-house vocational training (western states: 26.7%). This figure falls to 13% when craft enterprises in the eastern states are asked (western states: 48.8%). As of March/April, nearly 60% of the craft enterprises surveyed in the eastern states had not yet reached a final decision on whether they would meet their skilled labour needs in the coming training year by providing their own in-house vocational training (western states: 14.8%). A total of 81.7% of these craft enterprises (western states: 68.1%) said that their decision would depend on whether their order position improved in the future.

One of this reasons for this 'wait and see' approach is that a large share of the craft enterprises (64%) in the eastern states tends to decide on a short-term basis according to their needs on how many training places they will offer (western states: 49.4%); 14.4% tend to gear themselves at short notice to the overall availability of suitable applicants (western states: 28.8% - Table 3.1.2). This explains why firms pursue different recruiting strategies. At the time of the survey, the entire range of possibilities for finding suitable applicants was already exhausted as a rule in the western states and particularly among enterprises falling under the purview of a chamber of industry and commerce in the eastern states. By contrast, the majority (81%) of craft enterprises in the eastern states report their vacant training places to the regional Employment Agencies (western states: 46.6%) and 81.6% wait for the initiative to come - in the form of an application - from school leavers themselves (western states: 41.2% - Table 3.1.3). The tactic of recruiting trainees from the ranks of those individuals who had completed a practical with their firm ranked third among craft enterprises in the eastern states with 22.7% (western states: 67.2%).

Looking at prior schooling, there are no particular indications for a lack of the necessary fundamental knowledge and attitudes among applicants that would explain the shortage of applicants in the skilled crafts and trades. The youths who most recently applied for a training place in the skilled crafts and trades sector in the eastern states were better qualified on average than their counterparts in the western states: 83.9% had an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate (western states: 28.6%), only 12.4% had a lower secondary school leaving certificate (western states: 65.7%). The percentages of upper secondary school leavers were generally comparable (Table 3.1.4). However, since the overall number of applicants for training places in craft enterprises in the eastern states is small, this data can provide only a provisional picture of the applicant structures broken down by level of school leaving certificate.

Just under 3% of the craft establishments surveyed in the eastern states said that for the year 2007 they had been able to fill none or only some of the training places they had on offer (western states: 14.2% - Table 3.1.5). Consequently, the fact that the stock of vacant training places grew this year appears to be a new development. This shows that especially for craft enterprises as a whole ⁰⁴  it was not just the lack of applicants (16.9%), the lack of suitable applicants (92.5%) or the fact that the training places they offered were not attractive (23.2%), but especially the craft enterprises' inadequate publicising and promotion of their own training places that ultimately led to their training places remaining vacant (70.8% - Table 3.1.6).

Apparently, craft enterprises in the eastern states are relatively certain on average about their skilled labour needs in the next two years: One out of every ten enterprises will "definitely" (western states: 10.6%) and two out of every three (64.6%) will "possibly" (western states: 73.6%) be able to fill their vacancies in the next two years. These figures are 20.6% and 34.1% for all firms in the eastern states (Table 3.1.7). In this connection, crafts enterprises in the eastern states plan more on using skilled labour with several years' work experience to meet their labour needs (86.5% compared to 62%) and less on filling vacancies with their own trainees (35.8% compared to 60.6%) than their counterparts in the western half of the country do. In this connection, craft enterprises in the eastern half of the country also rely more on providing continuing vocational training for their own unskilled/semi-skilled workers (52.4% compared to 22.6% - Table 3.1.8).

3.2 Training place offerings since 1999 - Findings from employment statistics (Troltsch)

The Betriebsdatei (company statistics) segment of the employment statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency was used for the following special evaluation. Information on in-house vocational training that had actually been conducted and the filling of training places for the period 1999 through 2006 is available as a result.  Since the Betriebsdatei does not list the chamber affiliation of the individual enterprises, the following evaluation uses company size as an indicator. Supplementary information is provided regarding trends in in-company vocational training place offerings broken down by economic sector.

Looking at the eastern states, the results show major, disproportionately large cuts in in-company vocational training capacity among the small enterprises with fewer than ten employees and smaller medium-sized enterprises with fewer than 50 employees (Table 3.2.1a to 3.2.1c). Measured by the average development in the eastern states, training capacity in these company size classes, where craft enterprises account for the largest shares, was reduced by an especially large degree - this in addition to the fact that the development of in-company vocational training in the eastern states has seen a marked negative development compared to the average development observed in Germany as a whole.

Particularly since demographic causes for the shortage of applicants can be largely ruled out for this period, it is to be assumed that these developments could be a key reason for the current problems that crafts enterprises and small firms in the eastern half of the country are experiencing when filling training places. This is because, faced with the much smaller number of training places being offered in recent years, youths have correspondingly shifted their focus in their choice of occupation or have applied for a training place in Germany's western states. The slight stabilisation at a low level seen starting in 2005 in those company size classes which particularly cut back on their training places is a first indication for a possible turn-around in the trend of cutting training places.

Looking at the findings in detail, the extent of the cuts must be especially emphasised. Nearly 56,000 in-company training places in the eastern half of the country were eliminated between 1999 and 2006. Enterprises with fewer than 50 employees accounted for virtually all of these cuts (Table 3.2.1a). The number of training places being offered in the eastern states has fallen to 86.4% of the level reported in 1999 (Table 3.2.1b). The percentage drops seen among enterprises with fewer than 50 employees peaked at 35% during this period. This trend was also unfavourable given that this group of enterprises accounted for more than 60% of the in-company training places offered in 1999. Diverging from the general trend observed in the eastern states, only enterprises with 50 or more employees were able to keep their cuts in training capacity within reasonable limits or increase the number of training places they offered for youths (Table 3.2.1c).

Labour market-related problems (Tables 3.2.2a to 3.2.2c) constitute the primary causes for the downward trend in the vocational training being offered in the eastern states. Here, in-company vocational training is closely linked to employment levels. As a result, the sharp drop of nearly 700,000 jobs in the eastern half of the country has had a direct impact on the number of training places being offered (Table 3.2.2a). Larger medium-sized enterprises and large companies with 50 or more employees provided the only exception here, reporting smaller cuts than small enterprises did (Table 3.2.2b) and - contrary to the general trend seen in employment in the eastern states - they were able stabilise their training capacity somewhat (Table 3.2.2c).

Looking at a sectoral breakdown of how in-company vocational training has developed, those sectors that are primarily geared to domestic demand - such as the foodstuffs, beverages, tobacco and consumer goods industries - particularly appear to have cut back the amount of in-house vocational training they offer (Table 3.2.3a to 3.2.3c). The construction sector also played a special role in this connection. Here the cut-backs in training places - some 40,000 or 64.1% - were especially drastic and account for a large share of the total cuts. As in the case of the breakdown by company size, negative employment trends are behind these developments in the number of training places offered by enterprises (Table 3.2.4a to 3.2.4c).

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4. Training place demand in Germany's eastern states (Kroll/Ulrich)

4.1 School leavers from general secondary schools (Kroll)

The number of school leavers from general secondary schools will decline in some cases markedly in the coming years. This will particularly be seen in Germany's eastern states. Current forecasts regarding school leavers from general secondary schools in the eastern states already show some 23,200 (12.4%) fewer school leavers in 2008 compared to 2007. Compared to the figures from the 1999 reporting year, the total number of school leavers in the eastern states has fallen from 234,557 to 164,364, an approximately 30% decline in a 10-year period (see Table 4.1.1). According to forecasts, this trend will continue in the coming years and will probably bottom out in the eastern states in the year 2011 when some 111,000 youths leave the general secondary school system. This would be a further decline of some 33% over 2008 which is already having an impact on the number of persons applying for in-company vocational training.

4.2 Registered training place applicants in Germany's eastern states according to the vocational training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency (Kroll)

Based on the vocational training market statistics published by the Federal Employment Agency,⁰⁶  the number of registered applicants in the eastern states in 2008 (some 138,000) was already markedly lower than the year before when approximately 186,000 applicants were registered (-26%). The decline was the sharpest among school leavers from lower secondary schools and intermediate secondary schools - those groups which are particularly important sources of applicants for in-company vocational training places (Table 4.2.1 and Chart 4.2.1). The situation is even more pronounced when one compares the current figures with those from the 1998/99 reporting year. Here, the number of applicants in the eastern states has fallen by almost half (-45%, from 250,046 to 137,889). Although the trend in the western half of the country is in the same direction, it is definitely not as dramatic. Looking at the figures for the 2007/08 reporting year, the number of reported applicants in the western states fell by only 12% over the previous year (547,362 in 2006/07 compared to 482,113 in 2007/08) and when the 2007/08 reporting year is compared with the 1998/99 reporting year the decline was only 13% (552,602 in 1998/99 compared to 482,113 in 2007/08).

4.3 Registered training place applicants in the eastern states according to the vocational training market statistics of the Federal Employment Agency, broken down by occupational group (Kroll)

Looking at the figures for applicants for in-company vocational training places broken down by occupational group, it can first of all be said that applicant numbers have fallen sharply in manufacturing occupations, service occupations and also miscellaneous occupations (see Table 4.3.1 and Chart 4.3.1). The decline is the most noticeable in manufacturing occupations, namely a 30% drop over the previous year (76,471 compared to 53,588). Here too, the trend is particularly evident when one compares the current figures with those from the 1998/99 reporting year. In the case of manufacturing occupations, the number of registered applicants fell by 49% (104,488 in 1998/99 compared to 53,588 in 2007/08). The pattern is similar - although not as pronounced - in service occupations and miscellaneous occupations.

Compared with applicant figures from ten years ago, the sub-group of construction and construction-related occupations (which counted large numbers of trainees) including carpenters among the manufacturing occupations has faced a particularly sharp decline in applicant numbers. They have fallen by 66% - from 41,755 in the 1998/99 reporting year to 14,118 in 2007/08. Looking at service occupations, the group consisting of organisational, administrative, clerical occupations reported a 50% decline, the largest loss in the years between 1998/99 and 2007/08.

4.4 Forecast for potential demand (Ulrich) ⁰⁷

How many youths will be available for 'dual' vocational training (which combines part-time vocational schooling with practical work experience) in the future? The quantitative trends in three sub-groups must be taken into account when assessing the level of potential future demand in Germany's eastern states:

• School leavers from general secondary schools, 
• School leavers from vocational schools and
• Unplaced applicants from previous years, in other words, youths who are (continue to be) interested in an in-company vocational training place and who have been out of (general or vocational) school for some time already.

All three of these groups have a more or less close link with demographic trends. In addition, the number of unplaced applicants from previous years depends on the conditions on the vocational training market. The size of all three groups will shrink markedly in the coming years due to the sharp decline in the population that will be seen particularly among younger persons. This is the case for the western states but is especially so for Germany's eastern states.

The upper section of Tables 4.4.1 to 4.4.3 contain updated forecasts for the future number of school leavers from general and vocational schools and for the anticipated number of unplaced applicants from previous years for the western states, the eastern states and for Germany as a whole.⁰⁸  It is evident that all three sub-groups will shrink noticeably in the coming years.

However, not every school leaver has the intention of undergoing vocational training through the dual vocational training system. Therefore the size of the potential demand that is actually available to the dual vocational training system is smaller than the sum of all school leavers. Potential demand can be defined as the total number of all youths who are interested in a training place in the dual vocational training system, irrespective of their actual qualification or suitability and other possible obstacles that stand in the way of actual, effective demand.⁰⁹  The fact that school leavers from different types of schools exhibit different levels of interest is taken into consideration in this connection. Corresponding empirical values were inferred from the BIBB school leaver surveys and projected unchanged for future years.

Calculations regarding the future development of potential demand can be found in the lower sections of Tables 4.4.1 to 4.4.3. It was assumed here that some 75% of the school leavers from general secondary schools who had earned a lower secondary school leaving certificate at the most were interested in starting vocational training in the same calendar year if possible. This figure was set at 60% for school leavers with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate and approximately 25% among school leavers who had earned university entrance qualification. Looking at graduates from vocational schools, it was assumed that the largest shares of individuals who are interested in in-company vocational training are to be found in those groups of individuals who had completed a prevocational training year (85%) or who had completed a basic vocational training year (90%). This figure was assumed to be 65% among graduates from full-time vocational school who have not earned full vocational qualification and 50% among graduates from specialised vocationally-oriented upper secondary schools and among graduates from specialised academic upper secondary schools. Add to this the potential demand from unplaced applicants from previous years.¹⁰  This latter demand was not supposed to be simply set at 100% but rather estimated on the basis of the number of unplaced applicants from previous years who were registered with the Federal Employment Agency and whose interest in undergoing in-company vocational training was still evident at the end of the placement year, either because they had begun vocational training or were still seeking a training place at that time. According to the findings from the training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency, this applied to 63.5% (western states) and 69.5% (eastern states) of the applicants in 2007 who had left the general school system the previous year and to 47.6% (western states) and 45.8% (eastern states) of the applicants who had left school even earlier.

Total potential demand can be calculated by projecting the shares cited here to the size of the respective group in the coming years and adding the results.

As the right-hand column in Table 4.4.2 shows, potential demand in Germany's eastern states in particular will shrink enormously within an extremely short period, from 213,900 in 2005 to only 95,100 in the year 2012 (for comparison: 125,100 training contracts were signed in the eastern states in 2007). The decline in potential demand between last year (194,200) and this year (160,000) totalled 34,100 persons (-18%). Next year, potential demand will shrink another 28,100 (-18%). Consequently, by the year 2010 potential demand will be less than the number of training contracts signed last year.

The variant presented here is an 'optimistic' calculation since potential demand is calculated on the basis of all school leavers. In other words, this calculation also includes all those individuals who left school without earning a certificate. Their prospects on the vocational training market are however very limited. When school leavers who did not pass their final examination are not included in this calculation, the resulting figures are markedly lower (see the following chart and table).

According to the second, more narrowly formulated calculation, potential demand in Germany's eastern states can be expected to develop as follows:

According to this calculation, potential demand in the eastern states is already some 136,500 in 2008 - scarcely more than the total number of new training contracts that were registered the previous year (125,100, including an estimated 94,300 contracts for in-company vocational training, see above). Potential demand will fall considerably short of this level in the years 2009 and 2010 with just 111,100 and 90,800 respectively . This means that the vocational training market in Germany's new states has already contracted substantially this year at the expense of the enterprises there and that this trend will lead to a massive shortage of young skilled labour in the coming years.

This will be all the more so given that a pronounced east-west migration among youths has been observed in the eastern half of the country to date (see below), further reducing the potential demand that could be used by the home vocational training market. It is still unclear how much this level of mobility will change as the situation on the vocational training place market eases substantially (from the youths' point of view).

4.5 Development of extra-company vocational training places on offer (Ulrich)

A gradual reduction in the number of extra-company vocational training places on offer in the coming years constitutes one option for cushioning the effects of the sharp drop in potential demand.¹¹  The Federal Ministry of Education and Research has already responded correspondingly and reduced the number of training places that are subsidised through the Training Place Programme for the Eastern States by some 30% - approximately 3,000 places - to around 7,000 at the start of training in the 2008/09 training year.¹²  In contrast to the supplementary offerings from the Training Place Programme for the Eastern States which were conceived for youths who basically have the fundamental knowledge and attitudes required for successful vocational training but who are disadvantaged in the training place market, the funding programmes organised by the Federal Employment Agency and its branch offices which are responsible for ensuring the basic minimum income level of jobseekers in accordance with Volume II of Germany Code of Social Law are aimed at socially disadvantaged youths who have learning difficulties. Their numbers will also fall noticeably already in 2008. According to current findings from the vocational training market statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency, only 17,892 such training places were created in the 2008 reporting year - 4,217 fewer - 19% less - than in the same month of the previous year.13 

In all probability, it will not be possible to do without extra-company training places in the coming years. The reason behind this (as is particularly evident from the quantitative difference between the first and second variants of the calculations of future potential demand): The eastern states will also continue to have a large number of school leavers which firms consider - on the basis of the individual's poor marks (even though he/she has earned a certificate) or lack of a school certificate - not to have the fundamental knowledge or attitudes necessary for successful vocational training and who are consequently not taken into consideration for in-company vocational training. These youths however will probably be absorbed into the system, in particular through the Federal Employment Agency's special programmes for disadvantaged youths.¹⁴  The Vocational Training Place Programme for the Eastern States - which is primarily aimed at youths who basically have the fundamental knowledge and attitudes that are necessary for successful vocational training but are disadvantaged in the training place market - will however be discontinued.¹⁵


 

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5. Related literature / Supplementary information

5.1 Selected BIBB sources

On the subject of training places on offer:

• Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research): Berufsbildungsbericht 2008 (Report on Vocational Education and Training for the Year 2008). Bonn: 2008. URL: http://www.bmbf.de/pub/bbb_08.pdf
• Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research): Berufsbildungsbericht 2007 (Report on Vocational Education and Training for the Year 2007). Bonn: 2007. URL: http://www.bmbf.de/de/10798.php
• Troltsch, Klaus; Geiss, Sabine; Huber, Simone: Ausbildungsstellenmarkt  zwischen ungenutzten Ausbildungskapazitäten und steigendem Fachkräftebedarf. Erster Kurzbericht zum Ausbildungsmonitor des Bundesinstituts für Berufsbildung in Kooperation mit TNS Infratest. Bonn: 2007. URL: www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/ab21_wirueberuns_Erster_Kurzbericht_zum_Ausbildungsmonitor_2007.pdfTroltsch, Klaus; Walden, Günter: Beschäftigungssystem dominiert zunehmend Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. Zur Responsivität des dualen Ausbildungssystems. In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis (BWP), No. 04/07. Bonn: 2007
• Troltsch, Klaus: Ausbildungsbereitschaft von Betriebe - am künftigen oder bisherigen Fachkräftebedarf orientiert? In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis (BWP), No. 03/08. Bonn: 2008
• Troltsch, Klaus; Gericke, Naomi; Saxer, Susanne:  The training bonus - Does it get unplaced training place applicants into vocational training? Findings from research and work conducted by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training. In: BIBB Report 05/08. Bielefeld: 2008. URL: http://www.bibb.de/en/49447.htm

On the subject of training place demand:

• Große Deters, Fenne; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Entwicklung des Nachfragepotentials nach dualer Berufsausbildung bis 2020. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. Bonn: 2008. pp. 9-28. URL: http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
• Kroll, Stephan; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Wege zur Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. Bonn: 2008. pp. 29-41. URL:  http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
• Beicht, Ursula; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Which youths do not undergo/complete formal vocational training? Analysis of important determinants, with special consideration given to the individual's education biography. In: BIBB Report 6/08. Bielefeld: 2008. URL: http://www.bibb.de/en/49930.htm
• Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael; Ulrich, Joachim [Ed.]: Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen. Bielefeld: 2008. ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Eberhard, Verena: Die Entwicklung des Ausbildungsmarktes in Deutschland seit der Wiedervereinigung. In: Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd [Ed.]: Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen. Bielefeld: 2008. ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Trendwende auf dem Ausbildungsmarkt? Die aktuelle Lage im Spiegel der Statistik. In: Ausbilder-Handbuch, 91st Supplement: March 2007, pp. 3-26
• Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Krekel, Elisabeth M.: The situation of carry-over applicants in Germany - Findings from the 2006 applicant survey conducted by BIBB and the Federal Employment Agency. In: BIBB Report 01/07. Bielefeld: 2007. ISSN 1865-0821 and at http://www.bibb.de/en/32002.htm
  

footnotes:

⁰¹ Federal Employment Agency (2008): Gemeinsames Handeln zeigt deutliche Erfolge: Erstmals seit sieben Jahren mehr unbesetzte Stellen als unversorgte Bewerber. Presse Info 063 from 13 October 200802 Vgl. dazu: Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks: 10.000 Lehrstellen im Handwerk bisher unbesetzt. Pressemitteilung vom 11.08.2008 (http://www.zdh.de/presse/pressemeldungen/10000-lehrstellen-im-handwerk-bisher-unbesetzt.html)
⁰² Cf. in this connection the Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks (German Confederation of Skilled Crafts): 10.000 Lehrstellen im Handwerk bisher unbesetzt. Press release from 11 November 2008 (http://www.zdh.de/presse/pressemeldungen/10000-lehrstellen-im-handwerk-bisher-unbesetzt.html) .
⁰³ Conducted as part of the BIBB-Ausbildungsmonitor (BIBB Vocational Training Monitor) survey, this internet-based company survey was based on a representative sample from the Betriebsdatei company statistics that are part of the employment statistics issued by the Federal Employment Agency. The following findings from the evaluation of the first survey wave conducted in 2008 are weighted according to company size, economic sector and region (eastern/western states). A second survey on the further course of the placement year will be conducted in September of this year.
⁰⁴ Due to the small sample size it was not possible to offer a breakdown by eastern states/western states on this point.
⁰⁵ Data for the target date 31 December 2007 were not available at this time but are scheduled to be released shortly.
⁰⁶ It should be noted in general that the Federal Employment Agency revised its training market statistics as of 30 September 2007. All statements here refer to the revised data.
⁰⁷ The following statements on potential demand are based on: Große Deters, Fenne; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2008): Entwicklung des Nachfragepotenzials nach dualer Berufsausbildung bis 2020. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses (Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere, Issue 106). Bonn: Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training. This document is available at:  http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
⁰⁸ Regarding the method used for calculating forecasts, see the above paper by Große Deters/Ulmer/Ulrich (2008).
⁰⁹ hus, potential demand is not the same as officially registered demand. The differences - which are quite large in some cases - between potential demand and demand that is calculated using the traditional method are due to the peculiarities as well as the deficiencies of the official definition of demand. The scope of this definition is almost exclusively limited to successful demanders whereas unsuccessful demanders have been included in calculations only to a small extent to date. In order to be taken into consideration under the traditional method used to measure demand, unsuccessful training place applicants have to offer the requisite qualification and aptitude, have the fundamental knowledge and attitudes necessary for successful vocational training AND they cannot have opted for an alternative (such as continuing their schooling, taking on a practical or jobbing around) as of the end of the reporting year (always 30 September of the respective year). In the event that they have chosen an alternative, they are considered 'provided for' and are not counted as an unsuccessful demander even when the alternative is intended only to tide them over and they continue to be interested in starting in-company vocational training through the 'dual' vocational training system (which combines part-time schooling with practical work experience) as soon as possible. According to this definition, only those individuals who have no training place or employment as of the end of the reporting year are 'unsuccessful demanders'. Given this objectively questionable restriction, forecasts of future demand based on the definition used to date underestimate large segments of the potential demand which could be tapped to acquire young skilled workers in the future. As a result however such a calculation would be of no use for the aim pursued here, namely that of determining how many youths are available at all for dual vocational training in times of major demographic change.
¹⁰  For further information on the subject of 'unplaced applicants from previous years' see: http://www.bibb.de/de/wlk32636.htm
¹¹ See: http://www.bibb.de/de/wlk30323.htm regarding extra-company vocational training. - Further approaches to reducing the shortage of young skilled workers are described in: Kroll, Stephan; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (2008): Wege zur Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses. In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Ed.): Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses (Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere, Issue 106). Bonn: Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training. This document can be downloaded at: http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/wd_106_demografischer_wandel_und_seine_folgen.pdf
¹² See the corresponding agreement between the federal and state governments from 25 April 2008. Up to 7,000 additional training places will be funded for youths who were "registered with the Federal Employment Agency or the branch offices which are responsible for ensuring the basic minimum income level of jobseekers IAW Volume II of Germany Code of Social Law directly before the start of the measures as not yet having been placed." It is clear from this that such assistance will be provided on a secondary, subordinate basis, with first priority to be given to efforts to provide firms with suitable applicants. This assistance will be offered only when it has not been possible to place the individual in an in-company training place to date.  
¹³ The number of rehabilitation places for youths with disabilities also fell, by 520 to a total of 6,838. 
¹⁴ Their relative share will probably become more like the level seen for the western states. In 2007, for every 100 in-company vocational training places in the western states there were four extra-company training places created under Section 242 of the Third Book of the German Social Code (particularly) for persons with learning disabilities or who are socially disadvantaged. This figure was 12 in the eastern states (some 17,100 training places created under Section 242 of the Third Book of the German Social Code compared to approximately 94,300 in-company training contracts). Should conditions in the eastern states move in the direction of the level in the western states, it can be expected that the number of training places created in the eastern states under Section 242 of the Third Book of the German Social Code will be approximately 4,000 in the long term.
¹⁵ According to the assessment of the federal and state governments in April 2008, "in light of the still tight situation on the training place market in the eastern states and Berlin, it will be necessary to continue the programme for the years 2009 and 2010 as well with a total of 5,000 training places". However, these training places should be negotiated once again "at the start of the year 2009 with an eye to the actual training place situation": "The federal and state governments are agreed that, given the demographic trend in the eastern states and Berlin, the Vocational Training Place Programme for the Eastern States shall be discontinued (see the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2008): Vereinbarung. Ausbildungsplatzprogramm Ost. Bonn und Berlin: BMBF).

Erscheinungsdatum und Hinweis Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

Publication on the Internet: October 22, 2008

URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0300-8

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Last modified on: November 10, 2009