Print version Recommend this page Press release
15/ 2009
Bonn, 16.04.2009
Shortage of university graduates in Germany? - Blind spots in the OECD comparison
Is Germany at risk of a shortage of university graduates and, as a result, a shortage of highly qualified skilled workers? The figures that the OECD published in the study "Education at a Glance" in the autumn of 2008 caused a stir because they gave Germany poor marks for tertiary education. According to these statistics, only 21.2% of the typical age cohort completed a tertiary programme in 2006. The average for all OECD countries is 37.2%. The Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) examined the OECD indicators and investigated whether Germany's supposedly poor performance in this international ranking could be explained by the special structural features of the German vocational training system and labour market. The findings from this analysis have now been published in the latest issue of the BIBB journal "Vocational Training in Research and Practice - BWP", No. 2/2009.
"Sweeping statements about an alarming shortage of university graduates appear to be unfounded even though we presently do have a lack of highly-qualified personnel in some technical and scientific fields," noted Manfred Kremer, president of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training. "University graduation rates for younger birth cohorts are not a suitable yardstick on their own for assessing a country's technological capabilities and they are not a suitable basis on their own for developing sensible policy recommendations regarding these capabilities." According to the findings from the BIBB analysis, it would more effective to examine the share of university graduates out of the total working population. And this in turn should be interpreted in light of the special structural features of the individual country's education system and labour market. In contrast to the graduate rate, the share of university graduates among 25-50-64-year-olds in Germany is 24%, only slightly lower than the OECD average of 27%.
It would not be correct at present to say that the German labour market does not have enough university graduates in all fields of employment. The share of 25-to-64-year-olds who have earned a tertiary degree is slightly larger than the share of the same age cohort that is employed in positions with high skill requirements - which is some 20% (see chart). This 'surplus' is smaller than the 'surpluses' seen in other countries. However this can be explained by the fact that the German education system produces correspondingly trained personnel through initial and continuing vocational training courses. "Many people in Germany acquire skills and competences through initial and continuing vocational training that people in countries without a well-developed vocational training system have to learn at universities," Kremer emphasized. University graduates are not the only ones who apply for vacant jobs that require a high level of training: They must also compete with many well-trained skilled workers who have undergone continuing training to earn additional qualification. A comparison of highly-qualified 25-to-64-year-olds and persons who hold jobs that require a high level of training seems to indicate that education and employment tally better with one another in Germany than in other OECD countries.
Thus the BIBB analysis clearly puts the concern over a shortage of university graduates in Germany into perspective. Nevertheless, Germany must also continue to foster training that produces highly-qualified skilled workers. Kremer: "To achieve this, we must not only make university studies more attractive but also expand advanced continuing vocational training and improve mobility between these education sectors. As a result, working people could also earn higher levels of qualification as needed."
BIBB experts recommend taking steps to ensure efficient conditions in Germany's education system in order to avoid a shortage of highly-qualified skilled labour in the future. For example, it would be desirable to have more nuanced predictions that would improve the information available on how the supply of and demand for graduates in certain courses of training or fields of study will develop in future. Further, enterprises should make greater use of the possibilities available to them to influence the pool of skilled labour by collaborating with education/training facilities or providing grants and to encourage young people's willingness to pursue demanding academic or vocational qualification paths.
Chart: Persons employed in jobs with high skill requirements and tertiary degrees among 25-to-64-year-olds
This article was published in Issue 2/2009 of the "Zeitschrift Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis" (Vocational Training in Research and Practice - BWP) journal. It can be downloaded free of charge at www.bibb.de/bwp/akademikerquoten
Point of contact for further information at BIBB:
Normann Müller, Tel.: +49 (0) 228 / 107 1022, E-mail: normann.mueller@bibb.de
