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44/ 2009
Bonn, 18.12.2009
Training market seriously affected by the economic crisis and by significant demographic decline
A survey conducted by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) as of the reference date of 30 September 2009 has revealed that 566,004 new apprenticeships were commenced across the whole of Germany in 2009, representing a fall of 50,338 training contracts (-8.2%) compared to the previous year. In East Germany, the number of new contracts concluded decreased by 13.0% to 98,998. This was both the lowest level seen since German reunification and the first time that the figure has fallen below the 100,000 mark. 467,006 new training contracts were concluded in West Germany. This constituted a decline of -7.1%, a somewhat lower rate of decrease than in East Germany.
Despite the collapse in the number of training places in East Germany, training opportunities for young people living there have actually improved. Young East Germans now even enjoy more favourable chances than those afforded to young people based in the West of the country due to a further 13.1% decrease in the number of lower and intermediate secondary school leavers in East Germany. Such school leavers make up the main clientele of dual vocational education and training. Their number has more than halved since 2001 (175,163), and now stands at only 79,802. A further aggravating circumstance this year was the fact that the massive decline in the birth rate in the early 1990's is now exerting an initial discernable effect on the number of upper secondary school leavers. The figure for such school leavers fell by 17.3% compared to 2008 to only 54,030.
The consequence for many East German companies is that they are now experiencing major difficulties in finding applicants for the training places they have on offer. This especially applies to companies which provide apprenticeships outside occupations which are in heavy demand. Occupations for which it is proving extremely hard to fill training places include baker, butcher, industrial cleaner, restaurant specialist and salesperson specialising in foodstuffs.
West Germany also saw a fall in the number of young people interested in entering training, although the effects of significant demographic decline are not as serious as in East Germany. Despite the fact that 3.8% fewer lower and intermediate secondary school leavers were registered, the number of upper secondary school leavers rose by 4.8%. One of the reasons for this was the double cohort of upper secondary school leavers from the Saarland.
The number of unplaced applicants from previous years registering with the employment agencies, training networks and authorised regional providers in 2009 was significantly lower than originally expected, and this helped considerably in easing the pressure on the West German training market. Notwithstanding this, the sharp fall in this group of persons and the demographic effects were not able to compensate for the collapse in training place provision occasioned by the economic crisis (-37,758 compared to 2008) in sufficient measure so as afford an ongoing improvement in training opportunities to young people in West Germany as had been the case in the previous three years. In arithmetic terms, 67.0 new training contracts per 100 school leavers were available in 2008. In 2009, this figure fell back to 63.1. (In East Germany, the corresponding figures for the two years were 72.4 and 74.0 respectively).
This means that the situation on the training market in Germany is increasingly characterised by two apparently contradictory phenomena. On the one hand, companies - especially East German firms - are attracting fewer and fewer applicants. By way of contrast, and this is particularly the case in West Germany, there are still too many young people who are failing to obtain a training place. As of the reference date of 30 September 2009, employment agencies, training networks and authorised regional providers across Germany reported that they still had around 93,000 applicants on their books who wished to be placed. Most of these young people (approximately 82,000) are from West Germany.
In the light of these figures, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) President Manfred Kremer is appealing to companies to devote more attention in future to young people who have not been high fliers at school. He believes that the demographic decline which will continue over the course of the next few years will leave companies with no alternative other than to accede to this request. "Many young people who are assumed to be of lower ability are happy to have left their school days behind them and have a burning desire to demonstrate their true strengths by entering in-company vocational education and training", says Manfred Kremer. For this reason, he believes that it does not make sense to accommodate such young people who display the necessary degree of apprenticeship entry maturity in school-based waiting loops where they will become further demotivated.
For further analyses and data on current developments on the training places market in 2009, please visit the BIBB website at www.bibb.de .
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