Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB)

Content

• Almost one in four training contracts nationwide is prematurely dissolved
• Dissolved contract does not ncessarily mean training dropout
• Almost two thirds of dissolved contracts during the first year
• The lower the school leaving qualification the higher the rate of dissolution
• Care required in the interpretation of differences in the rates of dissolution
• Forecast
• Literature
  

Almost one in four training contracts nationwide is prematurely dissolved

Across Germany as a whole, between 20 and 25 percent of training contracts commenced within the dual system have been prematurely dissolved since as long ago as the beginning of the 1990's (cf. Table 1). The 2010 figure of 23 percent was in line with this rate and represented a total of around 142,000 dissolved contracts during the reporting year (cf. BIBB 2012, Chapter A 4.7). The rate calculated by BIBB  as the sum of rates for the single beginner cohorts("LQneu") may be regarded as an approximate value for the reporting year in question (cf. EBBINGHAUS/GERICKE/UHLY 2012; UHLY/GERICKE 2011 for detailed explanations of the method of calculation).

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Dissolved contract does not ncessarily mean training dropout

For a large proportion of trainees, however, a dissolved contract does not constitute a training dropout! A 2002 BIBB study of dissolved contracts and training dropouts showed that approximately half of the trainees with a dissolved contract went on to conclude another training contract within the dual system (cf. SCHÖNGEN 2003, p. 37). In the reporting year 2010, at least 8 percent of newly concluded training contracts were changed contracts (cf. BIBB 2012, Chapter A 4.3). Such changes of training occupation or company are also counted as dissolved contracts. Because it is not possible to trace the individual training pathways of trainees with a dissolved contract, the vocational education and training statistics do not enable us to ascertain which dissolved contracts represent a final dropout from training. BIBB is currently developing a calculation model which will provide an estimation of dropout rates on the basis of the VET statistics. The data records to allow this model to be applied will, however, only be available in a few years' time.

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Almost two thirds of dissolved contracts during the first year

The vocational education and training statistics record month and year of events relevant to training since reporting year 2007. This enables the amount of time which elapses between the commencement and dissolution of a contract to be determined. The overall statistics only record contracts which are actually begun. This means that contracts which are dissolved prior to commencement of training are not included. The figure presents the distribution of all dissolved contracts for the reporting year 2010 across various periods of time (not the rates of dissolution!)

Almost two thirds of premature dissolutions of contract took place within the first year following commencement of training (approximately 0 of contracts lasted for a maximum of 4 months only [probationary period], a further 31% for between 5 and 12 months). A relatively high incidence of dissolution also occurs during the second year following commencement of training. A small proportion of all dissolutions takes place at a later point (for details on the gradual differences in areas of responsibility cf. BIBB 2012, Table A 4.7-5). The accumulation of dissolutions in the first year is also the reason why rates of dissolution calculated as a ratio of dissolutions and the total number of young people in training produce significantly lower rates of dissolution. This does not, however, adequately map the rate of dissolution of contracts (statistical artifact) due to the fact that the figure for the total number of young people in training no longer includes the contracts commenced in preceding years with a high risk of dissolution. For this reason, BIBB calculates rates of dissolution on the basis of training contracts commenced (cf. EBBINGHAUS/GERICKE/UHLY 2012).

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The lower the school leaving qualification the higher the rate of dissolution

Since the reporting year 2009, it has also been possible to calculate rates of dissolution according to various personal characteristics (cf. BIBB 2011, Chapter A 4.8). One example of this is the differentiation according to the general school leaving qualification achieved by trainees prior to commencement of vocational education and training. Table 2 shows that the rate of dissolution rises if the general school leaving qualification of the trainees is lower. The rate of dissolution for trainees who have failed to acquire a lower secondary school leaving qualification (37.4%) is, for example, nearly three times higher than the corresponding rate for trainees who have achieved a higher education entrance qualification (13.2%). This ranking of rates of dissolution is apparent across virtually all areas of responsibility (cf. BIBB 2012, Chapter A 4.7). With the exception of the liberal professions, the gap in rates of dissolution is greatest between intermediate secondary school leaving certificate and lower secondary school leaving certificate.

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Care required in the interpretation of differences in the rates of dissolution

A high rate of dissolution does not mean that young people are more likely to dissolve contracts. The vocational education and training statistics neither survey who has instigated the dissolution of a contract nor the reason for dissolution. This also does not necessarily mean that the school leaving qualification or accompanied personal characteristics were the cause of the contract dissolutions. Dissolutions of contract vary significantly in different occupations and occupational groups (cf. BIBB 2012, Chapter A 4.7), and it is likely that there are also considerable variances in accordance with company characteristics such as company size (not recorded in the VET statistics) or branch of trade and industry (not yet capable of evaluation due to reporting problems in the craft trades sector). A higher rate of dissolution for a group of persons may also be the result of unequal access opportunities to more stable or less stable training places. For this reason, care needs to be exercised in the interpretation of such bivariate correlations.

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Forecast

The opportunities for analysis provided by the vocational education and training statistics have continuously improved since the 2007 amendment entered into effect. It has only been possible to present a small extract of the BIBB evaluations here. Further findings, and in particular new opportunities for analysis, are contained in the 2012 BIBB Data Report. Despite the expansion of available possibilities on the basis of the individual data included in the VET statistics, additional socio-scientific data surveys relating to contract dissolutions and training dropouts are urgently required. BIBB is planning a further study on contract dissolutions and training dropouts for 2013.

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Literature

• BIBB (Ed.): Data Report to accompany the Report on Vocational Education and Training. Bonn 2011 - URL: http://datenreport.bibb.de/Datenreport_2011.pdf (last updated: 07.02.2012)
• BIBB (Ed.): Data Report to accompany the Report on Vocational Education and Training. Bonn 2012 - URL: http://datenreport.bibb.de/Datenreport_2012.pdf (draft version expected to be published in mid-April 2012)
• EBBINGHAUS, M.; GERICKE, N.; UHLY, A.: Indikatoren zur Effizienz der dualen Berufsausbildung [Indicators on the efficiency of dual vocational education and training]. In: DIONISIUS, R.; LISSEK, N.; SCHIER, F. (Ed.): Beteiligung an beruflicher Bildung - Indikatoren und Quoten im Überblick [Participation in vocational training - a summary of indicators and rates]. (Wissenschaftliches Diskussionspapier [Academic Research Discussion Paper], Issue 133) Bonn 2012 - URL: http://www.bibb.de/veroeffentlichungen/de/publication/show/id/6830 (last updated: 07.02.2012)
• SCHÖNGEN, K.: Ausbildungsvertrag gelöst = Ausbildung abgebrochen? Ergebnisse einer Befragung [Dissolved training contract = training dropout? Results of a survey]. In: Vocational Training in Research and Practice (BWP) 32 (2003) 5, pp. 35-39 - URL: http://www.bibb.de/veroeffentlichungen/de/publication/show/id/828
• UHLY, A.; GERICKE, N.: Erläuterungen zu den Auszubildenden-Daten der Berufsbildungsstatistik der statistischen Ämter des Bundes und der Länder (Erhebung zum 31.12.), den Berufsmerkmalen und den Berechnungen des BIBB [Explanations on trainee data included in the vocational education and training statistics produced by the Federal Statistical Office and the statistical offices of the federal states (survey as of 31 December), on occupational characteristics and on BIBB calculations]. Data status 2010 - published online: 14.12.2011. Trainee Data System (DAZUBI). Bonn 2011 - URL: http://www.bibb.de/dokumente/pdf/a21_dazubi_daten.pdf (last updated: 07.02.2012; edition updated on a regular basis)
  

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Last modified on: June 18, 2012