Print version Recommend this page Press release
18/ 2012
Bonn, 02.05.2012
Trend towards higher qualifications continues - bottlenecks in supply of skilled workers with initial vocational qualifications.
New labour market projections to the year 2030 from BIBB and IAB
Claims of an impending shortage of skilled workers, indeed workers in general, have become a standard feature of the political discussion about the future of the German labour market. New model calculations from the qualifications and occupational field projections carried out by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)and the German Federal Employment Agency's Institute for Employment Research (IAB) show discernible supply bottlenecks in some occupational fields up to the year 2030. Problems of matching supply and demand will increase, particularly for the intermediate qualification level - i.e. skilled workers who have completed initial vocational training in a recognised occupation - according to the findings of a BIBB/IAB projection published in the new BIBB REPORT 18/12: "Engpässe auf dem Arbeitsmarkt: Geändertes Bildungs- und Erwerbsverhalten mildert Fachkräftemangel / Labour market supply bottlenecks: skills shortage mitigated by changes in education and employment behaviour"
The new model calculations confirm the underlying trends found in the results of the first wave, dating from 2010. As regards the dimension of time, however, some variations are reported. According to the new calculations, it will take until 2030 for supply to meet the projected demand of the German economy as a whole, in purely quantitative terms. Two years ago, the first projection had indicated that this "intercept" would be achieved sooner, by the year 2025. Reasons for this shift of timeframe are thought to be the significant changes noticed in young people's education behaviour over the last two years, as well as changes in employment behaviour, particularly among women and older people. In the new projection period to 2030, there are sufficient academically trained staff to meet demand but increasing supply bottlenecks must be anticipated at the intermediate, skilled-worker qualification level.
The projections were concentrated on twelve "major occupational fields", which represent highly aggregated groupings of occupations. Divergent developments are possible for single occupations below this level, or within regional labour markets.
- Demand will far exceed supply in some major occupational fields, for example in
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- working, processing and repairing occupations,
- goods trading and distribution occupations,
- catering and cleaning occupations,
- health, social and personal care occupations.
- In the following major occupational fields, the labour market situation will be strained but nevertheless in overall equilibrium:
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- occupations in raw-material extraction,
- transport, warehousing, shipping, security and surveillance occupations,
- technical-scientific occupations,
- teaching occupations.
- In the following major occupational fields, there will still be an adequate supply of workers to meet projected demand in 2030:
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- occupations in operating and servicing plant and machinery,
- office occupations and commercial service occupations,
- legal, management and economic occupations.
The projections do not yield good news for workers without a full initial vocational qualification. According to the results, the demographic trend will not improve their chances of employment; demand in the economy is set to decline slightly. Supply will decline even more slowly, however, which will slightly increase the existing oversupply. It would seem advisable for the policy sector and industry to tackle this by means of second-chance qualifications at an early stage, particularly for younger people in employment, to address their untapped potential to obtain intermediate-level skilled-worker qualifications.
The supply of persons with a full initial vocational qualification will decline considerably for demographic reasons while demand will decline only minimally, so that by the end of the projection period, the overall demand will no longer be matched. Regional and/or sector-specific supply bottlenecks will occur long before the year 2030, however, principally because occupation-specific demand can no longer be met by an appropriately skilled and qualified supply.
In the higher education sector both supply and demand will continue to rise. The anticipated demand is composed of both replacement demand and new demand caused by structural change in the economy, in roughly equal proportions. Replacement demand will rise considerably from 2020 as the baby-boomer generation retires from the workplace. The trend for greater numbers of academic qualifications will continue, while company demand for them will also rise but at a slower rate than supply. Here the projection indicates that processes of adaptation and adjustment of imbalances with the intermediate qualification level can be expected.
BIBB REPORT 18/12 with the title "Engpässe auf dem Arbeitsmarkt: Geändertes Bildungs- und Erwerbsverhalten mildert Fachkräftemangel / Labour market supply bottlenecks: skills shortage mitigated by changes in education and employment behaviour" is available to download free of charge from the BIBB website at www.bibb.de/bibbreport .
Further information (in German) at www.qube-projekt.de
