Qualifications and occupational field projection
The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) have been undertaking a joint project in conjunction with the Institute of Economic Structural Research (GWS) in Osnabrück and the Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology (FIT) in St. Augustin to draw up model calculations for future developments in labour supply and requirements in accordance with four qualification levels and 12 main occupational fields/54 occupational fields (www.qube-projekt.de). The results of these model calculations were published for the first time in July 2010 (HELMRICH, ZIKA (Ed.) 2010). The databases used, the preparatory methodological work undertaken, the structures and assumptions of a total of three projection models and the model calculations to determine net supply and requirements until 2025 were all the object of a joint presentation with the GWS and the FIT, the aim here being to provide visibility of possible bottlenecks and areas of activity on the labour market of the future. Two further expansions of the work previously carried out are now required. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, a long-term labour market survey which has been separately prepared conceals the fact that market participants adapt to the changed supply and demand situation. Secondly, working time will have a greater part to play as human resources potential is more fully exploited.
