BIBB REPORT Edition 1/2014

Work until the end or retire early?

Brigitte Seyfried, Sabrina Weller

Few people in Germany work until they reach the standard retirement age of 65 years. The average retirement age in 2012 was 64 years (2011: 63.5 years): Many older employees cannot or do not want to work until they are 65 or older. In times of a skilled worker deficit, the German economy cannot afford to let experienced personnel go. But before thinking about age-appropriate measures-e.g. further education-to keep older employees on the job longer, it is important to ask which factors influence the decision of older employees between 50 and 65 years of age to retire early. This article is based on the representative 2012 BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey and shows the factors that influence the decision of older employees between 50 and 65 years of age to seek early retirement.

Older economically active people in official statistics

According to sample census data, the employment rate(01) of older employees between 50 and 64 years of age increased from 59.8 per cent in 2002 to 71.7 per cent in 2012. The 60 to 64 age group showed the clearest increase. In that period, the employment rate in that group rose from 25.9 per cent (2002) to 49.6 per cent (2012). By comparison, the increase in the employment rate in the 50 to 54 age group (3.3 per cent) and in the 55 to 59 age group (8.8 per cent) was clearly smaller (based on 2002 and 2012 sample census data). The rate of economic activity2(02) in the elderly population has risen as well in recent years. It was 67.8 per cent among the 50- to 64-year-olds in Germany in 2012 (2002: 52.2 per cent). The rate of economic activity for 55- to 59-year-olds increased twice as much (+15.2 percentage points) and that for 60- to 64-year-olds more than three times as much (+23.6 percentage points) as that for 15- to 64-year-olds (+7.2 percentage points) (BA 2013).

The BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey is a telephone survey of 20,000 economically active people in Germany, carried out jointly by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (BAuA). Its differentiated, representative information about economically active people and jobs is used in occupational and training research projects and industrial safety reporting.

 

Retirement age and deductions for early exit from the labour force

The statutory standard retirement age determines the age at which employees may or have to withdraw from the labour force without deductions from their pensions. From 2012 to 2023, the statutory retirement age for age cohorts from 1947 will rise by one month annually from 65 to 66 years, and from 2024 to 2029 it will rise by two months annually to 67 years. 45.1 per cent of the 60- to 64-year-olds took early retirement in 2012 (DEUTSCHE RENTENVERSICHERUNG 2013a). This age span shows that the actual retirement age varies considerably. The tendency to want to withdraw from the labour force early appears to rise from the age of 55 years (BOOCKMANN et al. 2012; HEISS 2011). This means that the desire to leave the labour force early becomes stronger with increasing age. However, this desire is less manifest in employees who have almost reached the statutory retirement age, that is, it decreases the closer they get to retirement age. Apparently, the option to stay in the job for one more year without deductions is more attractive than to retire immediately (HEISS 2011).

Many working people cannot keep working until they are 65 years old and older (Figure 1). BRUSSIG (2011a, p. 1) wrote in 2011: "Like before, today's retirement age of 65 years is only reached by a minority of employees subject to mandatory social security contributions." According to BÄCKER et al. (2009), a smooth transition into delayed retirement after the new pension regulations were introduced is only possible "if the older employees really keep their insurable job until their 67th year of age or have a realistic chance of finding another job after a phase of unemployment" (ibid., p. 147). If the income from a retirement pension is too low and does not provide sufficient security in old age, employees may be forced to stay in the job even if they wish to retire early.

The pension reforms have resulted in a more restrictive handling of early retirement and of regulations for optional early retirement. Withdrawal from the labour force before reaching the statutory retirement age means reduced pension amounts. The deduction in retirement benefits is 0.3 per cent per month of early retirement up to a total of 18 per cent. "Within certain limits, the deductions result in workers weighing the advantage of retirement against the disadvantage of permanently diminished pension benefits" (Brussig 2010, p. 10).

Of all newly retired people in 2012, 45.1 per cent (2011: 52.9 per cent) were between 60 and 64 years old. Another differentiation by age shows that the percentage of newly retired in Germany in 2012 was 6.0 per cent among the 60-year-olds, 11.3 per cent among the 61- to 62-year-olds, and 27.8 per cent among the 63- to 64-year-olds. It was 52.8 per cent among the 65-year-olds (2011: 41.8 per cent).

Transitions to retirement should be seen as processes based on various patterns. "Transitions to retirement can be made directly from previous full-time employment, from partial retirement at reduced working hours, from previous phases of unemployment, or from domestic activities, to name just a few potential transition patterns" (BÄCKER et al. 2009, p. 156). The authors point out in this context that, in view of heterogeneous everyday realities, empirical studies are facing the problem of giving a clear-cut definition of decision-making processes with respect to (early) retirement.

The literature has established "pathways into retirement", which are based on the various forms of old-age pensions and related to differences in income, characteristics of a person's former occupation, and his or her level of education and qualification (RADL 2007b; HIMMELREICHER et al. 2008). BRUSSIG (2012) distinguishes three transition scenarios based on data from the German pension insurance scheme:

1. Direct transition from continuous insurable employment in the three years before the beginning of pension payments ("direct transition from stable employment");
2. Transition from unemployment or illness in the past one or two years before the beginning of pension payments ("transitional unemployment");
3. Transition from unemployment or illness in the past three years before the beginning of pension payments ("long-term unemployed before retirement").

According to Brussig (2012), the transition scenarios have changed comparatively little despite longer phases of economic activity and more widespread economic activity at an older age.

Factors influencing the decision to take (early) retirement

Various attempts have been made to explain the different ways of retiring (early). It is generally assumed that the decision of employees on the time of retirement is the result of interacting push and pull factors. The push factors more or less force the employees to withdraw early from economic activity. These include, for example, unemployment, stressful working conditions, problems on the job market due to health problems or lack of qualifications (HIMMELREICHER et al. 2008). Some mention a diminished demand for older employees and the consequences of occupational workloads to explain early retirement. "The time of retirement cannot primarily be chosen by the autonomous decision of the people affected due to lack of individual control" (RADL 2007a, p. 512). "Since the job market situation is unfavourable for older employees, loss of a job at an older age often amounts to forced retirement" (ibid.). This means that individual preferences do not come to pass and that the companies are viewed as the decisive authority for determining the time of retirement.

Individual motives for early withdrawal from economic activity represent the pull factors, e.g. family or partnership constellations, financial incentives, and/or focus on leisure. Pull approaches consider going into retirement a rational choice in which an individual compares the income from continued economic activity to the pension benefit payments that can be received at a given point in time. This approach assumes that the individual who makes rational decisions optimizes his or her availability for work depending on realizable income and his or her consumer preferences.

So there are two opposing paradigms when it comes to interpreting the factors determining retirement. "One side argues that retirement has primarily to be viewed within the social and job market contexts. The emphasis here is placed on so-called push factors such as cuts in the workforce" (RIPHAHN/SCHMIDT 1995, p. 1). The other side puts the focus on the role of the rational individual "who responds flexibly to changes in institutional incentive structures. Pull factors such as financial incentives for retirement are dominant here" (ibid.). Various push and pull constellations result in different manifestations on the continuum between heteronomy and self-determination (HIMMELREICHER et al. 2008).

Push and pull factors can limit the individuals' choices. They leave little room to manoeuvre or eliminate choice completely (KEMPF 2007). The decision to retire at a certain age is not just an individual decision but is influenced by economic, political, institutional, and social conditions.

It is not exactly known how individual behaviour and context conditions interact. Studies from England note individual risk factors which let early withdrawal from economic activity appear more likely. "A combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors influence movement out of employment. Poor health and disability are the most common factors 'pushing' people out of the labour market, and are especially significant for those in their 50s and early 60s" (PHILLIPSON/SMITH 2005, p. 1).(03) Health factors were particularly significant "from middle and lower as opposed to higher social class groups" (ibid.). SHULTZ et al. (1998) found after analysing American studies that "the most consistent predictors have been health (CLARK/SPENGLER 1980), financial status (WARD 1984a/b), and attitudes about retirement that are based upon the degree of perceived reward received from one's employment".

The German studies mentioned above (BRUSSIG 2011a/b; Radl 2007a/b; Heiss 2011; Himmelreicher et al. 2008) confirm the individual level of qualification, occupation, income, level of education, unemployment in the later phase of economic activity, job satisfaction, health condition, and marriage status as pull factors for early withdrawal from economic activity. Push factors like the demand by companies in the job market, regional employment opportunities, legislation, and pension-relevant requirements also influence decision-making processes.

A differentiated analysis by occupation reveals the important influence of working conditions, corporate cultures, and opportunities in the job market on fitness for work and economic activity at an older age. According to BRUSSIG (2011b), chances to remain in simple and qualified manual occupations are particularly poor with increasing age. Available alternatives for the time after gainful employment or an individual's satisfaction with spare time activities that played a role in his or her work life or that can finally be taken up in retirement also exert an influence. "A desire for a new lifestyle may be significant for some: the feeling of wishing to enjoy life while still 'fit and young'?" (PHILLIPSON/SMITH 2005, p. 1).

The level of education has proven to be a significant influence on the desire to retire early. According to RADL (2007a), individuals with a high level of education are the latest to retire. "Compared to the 'university degree' reference category, every lower educational degree entails a greater risk of going into retirement" (ibid., p. 519). Individuals with a higher qualification typically retire one year later, according to Radl, but they also utilize ways to take early retirement, though to a lesser extent. It should also be noted that these individuals have normally had a longer training time and started their professional careers later.

The study by HEISS (2011) revealed that a large portion of the employees in all types of companies (small, medium, and large enterprises) retire at age 60. The portion of 60-year-old employees retiring at large enterprises was 68.04 per cent, the portion at small and medium-sized enterprises was little more than half that percentage. A kink was observed among the 64-year-olds in all types of enterprises; these showed the lowest retirement entry numbers. "But it is true that the bigger a company is, the earlier its employees retire" (ibid., p. 47). Schmidt (1995) assumes that the motives are active patterns of work and leisure and offers such as partial retirement, primarily at large companies. At the same time, the stronger competitive pressure at larger companies is mentioned, which can result in having to make rapid technological adjustments. "As a consequence, knowledge reduces in value faster, and older employees are more readily replaced with younger ones" (ibid. p. 191).

When differentiating by branches of the economy(04) HEISS (2011) found that retiring at 60 years of age was the most frequent behaviour. Once again, there was a small bend in the going into retirement trend among the 64-year-olds. According to Schmidt (1995), the different branches of the economy take different approaches when it comes to special regulations for internal retirement practices.

The following study considers the push and pull factors already examined in the relevant literature, such as gross income, health condition, level of education and company size as well as other determinants such as career aspirations, evaluation of one's occupational situation in the next years ahead, and working in a specific occupation.

Descriptive results (Part 1)

The study aims at finding out, on the basis of the data from the 2012 BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey, which of the factors mentioned at the outset exert the strongest influence on the decision of older employees between 50 and 65 years of age that they want to retire early. In addition, other factors such as further qualification activity and employment by occupational fields are examined in conjunction with the desire to retire. The workers' survey only included people who were economically active. It did not include people who had retired at the standard age or earlier. In the results shown, the desire to take early retirement or to stay employed until reaching the standard retirement age is the dependent variable while the individual influencing factors represent the independent variable. We will start with a descriptive representation of the connection between individual factors and the desire of older employees to retire. Then the explanatory power of each determining factor will be analysed in a multivariate model for the probability of retiring early or wishing to stay employed until reaching the standard retirement age. Our examination of each influ-encing factor based on the workers' survey will allow us to check the findings presented in the relevant literature based on current data.

Desire to retire early

The majority of the 50- to 64-year-olds (65.3 per cent) responded affirmatively in the 2012 BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey when asked if they would like to take early retirement. 27.0 per cent would like to go on working until they reach the standard retirement age, 6.3 per cent of the respondents would like to go on working beyond their retirement age. The tendency for respondents to state more frequently that they would like to go on working until they reach the standard retirement age the closer they get to the statutory retirement age is confirmed, differentiated by age category. 13.0 per cent of the 60- to 64-year-olds would also like to go on working beyond the standard retirement age (Figure 2).

Differentiating among the 60- to 64-year-olds confirms the findings of the study that the desire to retire early declines with increasing age (Figure 3).

Main reasons for early retirement

The most frequent reason the 50- to 64-year-old respondents gave for wanting to retire early was that they wanted to have time for personal interests (39.8 per cent). 29.8 per cent stated health reasons, and for 22.3 per cent the demanding job was a reason for wanting to quit early. When differentiating by age group, the reason that "I want to have more time for pursuing personal interests" was a strong factor for early withdrawal from employment in all three age categories. The health aspect becomes more important with increasing age. It is somewhat surprising that demanding work is mentioned less as a reason to exit with increasing age (Figure 4). This may be due to the fact that employees who find the work too demanding have already moved out of employment.

Gross income

The results of the 2012 BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey on the gross monthly salary and the desire to retire among older employees show that those who would like to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age considerably more frequently have a gross monthly income under 1,000 euros (13.9 per cent) (Figure 5). In comparison, 6.8 per cent of those who wish to retire early state that they are in a low income bracket. There is also a clearly higher percentage from the income category of over 5,000 euros among the respondents who would like to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age (10.4 per cent). Only 8.2 per cent of those who wish to retire early have a gross income in that amount. Older employees who wish to retire early are considerably more frequently found in the medium income brackets (2,000 to 3,000 euros and 3,000 to 4,000 euros) than employees who would like to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age.

Health condition

As expected, the responses to the question how the respondents evaluate their health and the question about their wish to take early retirement reveal that older employees who would like to take early retirement state more frequently that their health is less good or poor (28 per cent) than those who would like to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age (13.5 per cent) (Figure 6). Accordingly, older employees want to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age more frequently state that their health condition is excellent or good (86.5 per cent) than the ones who want to retire early (72.0 per cent). This tendency is confirmed when differentiating by age groups within the 50- to 64-year-olds.

Level of education

Employees stay economically active longer the higher their level of education. While 25.1 per cent of the 50- to 64-year-old employees who wish to remain in employment until they reach the standard retirement age have a degree from a university or a university of applied sciences (FH), only 19.3 per cent of those who wish to move out of employment early have an academic degree (Figure 7). Older employees who plan to take early retirement (64.3 per cent) state more frequently than employees who wish to remain in employment until they reach the standard retirement age (59.1 per cent) that they have had a dual or school-based training or undergone professional development training.

Career

When looking at career aspirations, it is apparent that, as could be expected, older employees who very strongly or strongly pursue the goal of a professional career state more frequently that they want to remain in employment until they reach the standard retirement age (standard: 25.5 per cent, early: 21.3 per cent). The career idea loses its relevance with increasing age. However, those who wish to stay employed until they reach the standard retirement age state more frequently in all three age groups that they very strongly or strongly pursue the goal of a professional career.

Company size

36.6 per cent of the 50- to 64-year-old respondents in companies with more than 250 employees say they wish to take early retirement (Figure 8). In companies with up to 50 employees, 35.1 per cent wish to move out of employment early; in the size class of 50 to 249 employees that portion is 28.3 per cent.

The wish to retire early is particularly pronounced in the age group of the 55- to 59-year-olds in companies with over 250 employees (39.8 per cent); in companies with up to 50 employees, 33.5 per cent and in companies with 50 to 249 employees 26.7 per cent wish to retire early in this age group. Among the 60- to 64-year-olds, the wish for early retirement is strongest in companies with up to 50 employees (37.2 per cent) while 30.5 per cent of those in companies with over 250 employees express this wish.

Satisfaction with their previous professional life and assessment of their professional future

In addition to the determinants already studied in the relevant literature, satisfaction with one's previous professional life also affects retirement behaviour. Those older employees who are less or not satisfied with their previous professional life state more frequently that they would like to retire early. The difference is particularly apparent in the age group of 60- to 64-year-olds, in which 9.8 per cent would like to retire early, as opposed to 3.0 per cent of the less satisfied who want to continue working until they reach the standard retirement age.

Thoughts of older employees about changes in their job situation in the next two to three years also influence their retirement behaviour. Those who expect that their job situation will deteriorate state more frequently that they will retire early (17.6 per cent vs. standard age: 11.7 per cent).

If employees expect a future deterioration of their job situation they state more frequently that they want to move out of employment early in all groups (Figure 9). If employees assume that their job situation will improve, the wish to continue working until the standard retirement age is clearly stronger in the age group of the 50- to 54-year-olds. With increasing age, as outlined above, a positive evaluation of one's job situation is no longer a factor in continuing to work until reaching the standard retirement age.

Further training

The further qualification behaviour of older employees is not clearly correlated with an employee's decision to want to retire early. While 58.4 per cent of the employees between 50 and 54 years of age who wish to retire early state that they took part in continuing vocational training in the past two years, only 54.6 per cent of the same age group who would like to stay employed until reaching the standard retirement age did the same. This means that the continuing training activity in the past two years is not associated with a wish for longer employment in this age group. Continuing training in the past two years has no influence on the decision to retire early among the 55- to 59-year-old employees. Both the 55- to 59-year-olds who wish to retire early and the ones who wish to continue working until they reach the standard retirement age state with the same frequency (55 per cent) that they have participated in a further training event in the past two years. Conversely, the 60- to 64-year-old employees who would like to continue working until they reach the standard retirement age state more frequently (48.5 per cent) than the ones in the same age group who wish to retire early that they have attended several courses of continuing vocational training (44.6 per cent). There is, however, an apparent connection with the time these employees wish to retire and planned continuing vocational training. Employees in all age groups studied who wish to retire early state more frequently than employees who wish to retire at the standard retirement age that they plan to participate in continuing training.

Desired retirement age of older employees by occupational fields

In addition to the classic push and pull factors, the desired retirement age of older employees will now be broken down by occupational areas and occupational fields(05) and differentiated accordingly. This study reveals the occupations in which employees wish to retire early. It can therefore be shown which occupations represent a risk factor for early retirement. If one wants to keep employees in employment longer, specific measures must be taken in each occupation to improve the employment situation and to increase work motivation, especially among older employees.

It turns out that the majority of older employees in all occupational areas wish to retire early (Figure 10). This tendency diminishes with increasing age, however. Employees of all three age groups studied who work in pro-duction-related jobs state more frequently than employees in service jobs that they would like to retire early. In the 50- to 54-year-old and the 55- to 60-year-old age groups, employees in primary service occupations would like somewhat more frequently to go into early retirement than employees in secondary service occupations. But this difference no longer exists in the age group of the 60- to 64-year-olds. About 59 per cent of the employees in this age cohort who work in primary and secondary service occupations wish to retire early.

Differentiation by major occupational fields allows a more detailed examination of the desired retirement age of older employees. There are slightly varying tendencies with respect to the desired retirement age in the main occupational fields of which the three major occupational fields are composed (Figure 11). It is true that the wish to retire early diminishes in general with increasing age. But the percentage of employees who wish to retire early differs in the major occupational fields as well as in the age cohorts. While the desired retirement age of the 50- to 54-year-olds and the 60- to 64-year-olds shows a rather similar tendency across the individual major occupational fields, there are variations in the group of the 55- to 59-year-olds. These may be due to the fact that many employees in this age cohort taken optional early retirement, which distorts the basic data.

We will examine below, on the basis of the data provided by the 2012 BIBB/BAuA Workers' Survey, which factors de-termine the probability of the desire to retire early. A logistic regression model will be specified for that purpose. The dependent variable is a dichotomic variable where 1 = wish to retire early and 0 = wish to retire at standard age. In addition to the three age cohorts (50 to 55 years, 55 to 59 years, and 60 to 64 years), socio-demographic influencing variables such as the gross monthly income and the level of formal education as well as determining factors such as the individual health status, the desire to pursue a professional career, company size, job satisfaction, personal evaluation of changes in the job situation in the next few years, and the main occupational field in which the individual is employed, will be included in the analysis (Figure12).

The results show that employees at the age of 50 to 54 years and 55 to 60 years are more likely to want to retire early than the 60- to 65-year-old cohort. The probability is slightly higher for 55- to 59-year-olds than for 50- to 54-year-olds.

The health condition proves to be a pronounced push factor for the desire to move out of employment early. When compared to less good or poor health, excellent or good health is associated with a lower probability of wanting to retire early.

The desire to pursue a professional career is also associated with a lower probability of wanting to retire early.

Lack of job satisfaction has also proven to be a pronounced push factor in the calculations. Older employees who are satisfied with their job are less likely to have a desire for early retirement than older employees who are unsatisfied.

The results indicate an effect of education in accordance with our theoretical explanations above. Older employees with an academic degree are less likely to have a desire for early retirement than employees without formal qualifications. Older employees with formal qualifications or who have had professional development training, however, are more likely to have a desire for early retirement than employees without formal qualifications. This result confirms the findings by Hanushek et al. (2012) that specific vocational training results in early withdrawal from the labour force in old age while more general educational content as taught in higher education translate into better job opportunities for the employees. Older employees without formal qualifications may prefer employment until they reach the standard retirement age due to financial incentives. This is confirmed by the pronounced effect of income in these results. A higher income is associated with a higher probability of wanting to retire early.

Older employees who give a positive assessment of future changes in their job situation have significantly less desire for early retirement than employees who give a negative assessment of their future professional development.

Company size, continuing training activity (in the last two years and planned), as well as the main occupational fields do not have a significant influence on older employees' desire to retire early.

Overall, the regression analysis confirms the descriptive results and the findings of previous studies. Both push and pull factors have an influence on the decision in favour of early retirement. While poor health or lacking job satisfaction represent push factors, an academic degree proves to be a pull factor.

Abstract

When making decisions regarding early retirement, employees typically weigh the benefits of further employment against immediate retirement. Economic incentives such as labour status, income before retirement, and contributions paid into the pension plan during employment play a special role in this respect. But the decision is also influenced by the job situation and the working environment, such as the working atmosphere, working conditions, and job satisfaction.

Withdrawal from economic activity or retirement are not precisely timed events, except for the statutory retirement age. Who withdraws from the labour force at what time depends on various influencing and risk factors and differs in meaning depending on age. Retirement should be viewed to a greater extent as a process of transitioning into retirement whose conditions as well as the interactions among the various influencing and risk factors have not (yet) been fully understood. One reason for this is that the available data are not always clear cut, another is the fact that push approaches mostly focus on the time of withdrawal from economic activity while pull approaches typically look at the entry into the pension pay-out phase. In addition, there are differing datasets, methods of analysis, approaches, and definitions. Studies of a long time series with a differentiated analysis of various years of age and of birth cohorts are not available.

Even though pension legislation has made early retirement more difficult and typically accompanied by financial losses, there will still be no small number of employees who will try to fulfil their desire for early withdrawal from the labour force. Employees who are at retirement age will balance their lifetime spent against their remaining lifetime. The outcome of this balancing is certain to be a highly personal matter. It does not just depend on age but also on an individual's perception and assessment of his or her entire professional and general biography. In some occupations and due to the job market situation or health condition of the individual employees, there will be little leeway for the decision, and they leave the labour force "involuntarily".

Various approaches will have to be taken in the future to keep older employees in employment longer. One study that looked into various measures with respect to decisions regarding withdrawal from economic activity revealed, for example, that only mixed-age teams result in the desired longer employment periods (Boockmann et al. 2012). All other measures examined, e.g. age-appropriate workplace design, reduced working hours and performance requirements, general and specialized continuing education for older workers did not influence older employees' decision regarding their wish to remain with the company. Research is desirable that sheds light on the conditions and interactions of various influencing and risk factors and that looks into various measures such as age- and ageing-appropriate design of the working environment, models for reducing working hours and for flexible working hours, health management and continuing education offers and their effect on early withdrawal from economic activity. These influencing and risk factors are also relevant for companies with respect to the much discussed skilled workforce deficit. The better the conditions and interactions are understood, the greater could be the chance to link the demands of the corporate and non-corporate worlds. A flexible pension system would be a major step in this respect. A rigid pension system no longer fits into the realities of the workplace. A flexible pension system would be desirable that can be adjusted to individual biographies and different professional requirements but also meets the needs of the job market and/or the companies and enterprises.

Related literature

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