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Situation on the vocational training market continues to improve despite drop in the number of new vocational training contracts

Veröffentlicht: 19.12.2008
This online publication has been registered and archived with the German National Library.
URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0306-9

Joachim Gerd Ulrich, Simone Flemming, Ralf-Olaf Granath, Elisabeth M. Krekel

Overview of the developments on the vocational training market

A total of 616,615 new training contracts were signed in Germany during the period from 1 October 2007 to 30 September 2008. This is 9,270 or 1.5% fewer contracts than during the same period one year earlier, according to the BIBB 30 September Survey for 2008, a survey conducted by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) on new training contracts as of 30 September 2008.

Pursuant to the Vocational Training Act, BIBB conducts the 30 September Survey every year, working directly with the bodies responsible for vocational education and training in Germany. This survey takes into account all training contracts that have been signed between 1 October of the previous year and 30 September of the current year and have not been prematurely cancelled. The relevant authorities forward the figures on new training contracts that have been signed during this period to BIBB by the end of November. Preliminary findings are available by mid-December. This data is used in the German government's annual Report on Vocational Training and is available in tabular form from the BIBB web site.

The figures are broken down by occupation and Employment Agency district. Data on follow-up contracts was recorded separately. In contrast to the vocational training statistics issued by the Federal Statistical Office, this latter type of contract is not included in the total number of new training contracts since follow-up contracts are generally set up for a period of training than lasts less than 24 months.

The data from the BIBB 30 September Survey can be linked with the findings from the placement statistics that the Federal Employment Agency reports as of the 30 September cut-off date each year. Using this method, it is possible to obtain important up-to-date information regarding developments on the vocational training market and trends in the supply of and demand for in-company training places.

The fundamental reason for the decline was the cut-back in the number of extra-company training places which had been generated in Germany's eastern states in the years since German unification to make up for the lack of in-company training places. In light of the fact that the number of youths in the eastern states has fallen in the ensuing years, the amount of (primarily government-funded) extra-company vocational training being offered has been adjusted to bring it into line with the decline in demand. A total of 113,818 new vocational training contracts were registered in the eastern states, some 11,280 or 9% fewer than for the 2007 survey. The situation on the vocational training market in Germany's eastern states began easing in 2006; this trend continued during the reporting period despite the marked decline in the number of new vocational training contracts signed. The reason: The drop in the number of youths seeking vocational training was greater than the decline seen in the number of training places being offered. This improved the proportion of supply to demand.


New vocational training contracts as of 30 September

 

Germany

Breakdown::

Western states

Eastern states and Berlin

2007

625.885

500.787

125.098

2008

616.615

502.797

113.818

Difference

-9.270

+2.010

  -11.280

2008 over 2007

-1,5%

+0,4%

  -9,0%

Source: BIBB 30 September Survey on new vocational training contracts as of 30 September

In contrast to the eastern states, the number of new training contracts signed in Germany's western states increased once again to a total of 502,797 (+2,010 or +0.4% compared to 2007) - the highest level since 1992. The increase was not however as great as hoped for at the start of 2008. It became evident during the course of the following months that the upswing on the training place market was coming to an end and month after month the number of in-company training places that firms reported to the Federal Employment Agency for placement fell short of the figures seen during the previous reporting year. However the positive trend seen at the start of the placement year was still enough to produce a slight increase in the final number of training contracts over 2007 - at least in the western states. As a result, conditions on the training place market improved for youths in the western states as well, particularly as the number of youths declined for the first time since 1993 in 2008.
Despite the fact that conditions on the training place market in both the eastern and western states improved for the second year in a row, many youths still had difficulty finding an in-company training place in 2008. As of the end of the reporting year (30 September), the Federal Employment Agency still had 84,212 training place seekers registered with its offices who were not undergoing vocational training and were still the subject of placement efforts (2007: 117,848). A total of 19,507 vacant in-company training places were still available for youths who were yet looking for a training place at that time (2007: 18,359).

 

 

Unfilled training places and unplaced training place seekers who were registered with the Federal Employment Agency, as of the end of the reporting year 1)

 

Number of unfilled in-company vocational training places

Number of training place seekers who had not found a training place

Total

Breakdown::

Had already found an alternative 2 )

Had no alternative
('unprovided' training place seekers)

Germany

 

 

 

 

2007

18.359

117.848

85.188

32.660

2008

19.507

84.212

69.733

14.479

Entwicklung

1.148

-33.636

-15.455

-18.181

2008 zu 2007

+6,3%

-28,5%

-18,1%

-55,7%

Western states

 

 

 

 

2007

15.953

96.870

73.793

23.077

2008

16.664

72.707

62.583

10.124

Entwicklung

+711

-24.163

-11.210

-12.953

2008 zu 2007

+4,5%

-24,9%

-15,2%

-56,1%

Eastern states

 

 

 

 

2007

2.338

20.957

11.381

9.576

2008

2.769

11.485

7.133

4.352

Entwicklung

+431

-9.472

-4.248

-5.224

2008 zu 2007

+18,4%

-45,2%

-37,3%

-54,6%

1) As of 30 September of the respective year
2) For example: resumption of schooling, employment, jobbing around, prevocational training.
Excluding persons who are seeking a new training place although they are already undergoing vocational training.
(Germany as a whole: 2007: 13,030 and 2008: 12,113; western states: 2007: 8,856 and 2008: 9,734; eastern states: 2007: 4,170 and 2008: 2,378).

Deviations between the sum of the western and eastern states and the total for Germany as a whole are possible as a result of data which could not be assigned to a particular region.

Sources: Federal Employment Agency (2008a); own calculations.

 

The 84,212 training place seekers who were still looking for a training place at the end of the reporting year were placed primarily in substitute options. An alternative to a vocational training programme that leads to full vocational qualification could be found for 69,733 individuals by 30 September 2008. This alternative was resumption of schooling or a practical placement for 40%, participation in a government-subsidized training scheme for 43%, employment for 13% and community or social service for 4%.

In addition to the in-company vocational training places that were still unfilled, the follow-up placement phase also had a sufficient number of in-company introductory training vacancies to offer the 14,479 training place seekers who had not yet found an alternative as of the end of the reporting year on 30 September (so-called 'unprovided' applicants): A total of 20,461 such training places had been registered with the Federal Employment Agency as of 30 November 2008. At this point in time, 1,049 or 7% of the then 14,479 unprovided applicants had obtained a training place. Placement efforts were also no longer necessary for another 2,642 or 18% who had either found an alternative to in-company vocational training or whose current status was no longer known. Placement efforts continued for 10,788 or 75% of the unprovided applicants, whereby an alternative was already emerging for 2,411 of them.

In summary it can be said that despite the decline in the number of training contracts signed, the situation on the vocational training market continued to improve for young training place seekers in 2008. There were once again more offerings for youths during the 2008 reporting period than during the same period one year before and there was a marked decline in the number of training place seekers who were still receiving placement services at the end of the reporting year. Nevertheless, this improvement does not mean that the situation on the vocational training market is no longer to be considered tight. The number of training place applicants who were still seeking a training place at the end of the reporting year was still considerably larger than the number of unfilled training places that were still available. Placement efforts still have to fall back on alternatives such as resumption of secondary schooling, taking up introductory training or participating in a prevocational education scheme.

New training contracts as of 30 September

Findings for Germany as a whole

A total of 616,615 new training contracts were signed in Germany during the reporting period, the fourth largest number since 1992 (the first year for which reliable figures for reunified Germany are available). This number was however 9,270 fewer (-1.5%) than the number registered during the 2007 reporting year. Despite this, the slight decline in the number of new contracts did not adversely affect the situation on the vocational training market for youths seeking a training place.

The reason: Following continuous increases during recent years, the number of youths who would come into question for vocational training fell off sharply for the first time during the 2008 reporting year. This marks the beginning of a trend that will continue for the coming years.

The decline was greatest among those school leavers from general secondary schools and vocational schools who have not earned qualification for university enrolment and comprise the primary 'clientele' for vocational training: Their number fell by more than 40,000. By contrast, there was a slight increase (approximately 8,000) among school leavers who had earned qualification required for enrolment in a university or a university of applied sciences. The demand emanating from this group for 'dual' vocational training (which combines part-time vocational schooling with practical work experience) was relatively small and cannot compensate for the 'losses' seen among school leavers with no university entrance qualification.

 

 

Germany as a whole

 

School leavers from general secondary schools

School leavers from
vocational schools

Training place applicants from earlier school-leaver cohorts (unplaced applicants from previous years)

 

 

Not qualified to enter higher education

Qualified to enter higher education

PTY, BVT and FVS

USS and VGS

From the previous year

From even earlier years

Total

2007

677.587

264.542

315.269

110.663

161.856

223.022

1.752.939

2008

638.695

271.088

311.770

111.922

128.580

191.870

1.653.925

Difference

-38.892

+6.546

-3.499

+1.259

-33.276

-31.152

-99.014

2008 over 2007

-5,7%

+2,5%

-1,1%

+1,1%

-20,6%

-14,0%

-5,6%

School leavers from general secondary schools: actual numbers for 2007, estimate for 2008
School leavers from vocational schools: estimates for 2007 and 2008
Training place seekers from previous years: actual numbers for 2007 and 2008

PTY = school-based prevocational training year, BVT = school-based basic vocational training, FVS = Full-time vocational school which does not award full vocational qualification, USS = specialised upper secondary school, VGS = specialised vocational grammar school

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Institute for Vocational education and Training, own calculations

A sharp drop was also seen in the number of youths who had left school in previous years but were interested in finding a training place in 2008 and therefore registered with the Federal Employment Agency for help with their search. Their number fell by a total of some 64,000.

Since the drop in the number of training places was much smaller than the decline in the demand for dual vocational training, there was a marked improvement in the situation for youths seeking a training place. The 'computed placement rate' rose once again. This rate is the number of new training contracts per 100 school leavers from general secondary schools. It was 67.8 in 2008 in contrast to only 66.4 new training contracts per 100 school leavers from general secondary schools in 2007.

The 'computed placement rate' considerably simplifies the factors that play a role in the market situation (since demand for dual vocational training does not come solely from the group of the current year's school leavers from general secondary schools). However, the computed placement rate offers the advantage that the number of school leavers from general secondary schools corresponds quite closely to the size of the particular age cohort. Typical figures from the past indicate that a sufficient number of training places are available when the computed placement rate has been at least 66% continually for several years in a row. Should this not be the case (as during the years 2002 through 2006) the number of unplaced applicants from previous years grows.

Developments in the eastern states

The negative demographic trend is particularly evident in Germany's eastern states where the number of school leavers from general secondary schools fell by some 22,000, the number of school leavers from vocational schools by 4,000 and the number of training place seekers from previous school-leaver cohorts by 26,000.

Eastern states and Berlin

 

School leavers from general secondary schools

School leavers from
vocational schools

Training place applicants from earlier school-leaver cohorts (unplaced applicants from previous years)

 

 

Not qualified to enter higher

PTY, BVT and FVSS

USS and

From even earlier years

From the previous year

From even earlier years

Total

2007

117.778

67.177

39.611

22.958

35.927

67.966

351.417

2008

97.635

65.554

36.327

22.148

26.845

50.906

299.415

Difference

-20.143

-1.623

-3.284

-810

-9.082

-17.060

-52.002

2008 over 2007

-17,1%

-2,4%

-8,3%

-3,5%

-25,3%

-25,1%

-14,8%

School leavers from general secondary schools: actual numbers for 2007, estimate for 2008
School leavers from vocational schools: estimates for 2007 and 2008
Training place seekers from previous years: actual numbers for 2007 and 2008

PTY = school-based prevocational training year, BVT = school-based basic vocational training, FVS = Full-time vocational school which does not award full vocational qualification, USS = specialised upper secondary school, VGS = specialised vocational grammar school

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, own calculations

In light of this development, extra-company training places in the eastern states were cut back at an accelerated pace. These training places had been created in large numbers in the years since German unification in order to offset the shortage of in-company vocational training places. As a result of the cut-backs, the Federal Employment Agency reported that 10,879 fewer extra-company training places had been registered with it in 2008 than in 2007.

In years past, it had not been possible to differentiate between 'in-company' and 'extra-company' (i.e. vocational training that is primarily publicly financed) training contracts for BIBB's annual survey of new vocational training contracts. The number of contracts for extra-company training had to be estimated subsequently with a high degree of uncertainty. In order to improve this data, it was agreed in coordination with representatives from leading organisations in trade and industry, the skilled trades and the liberal professions in mid-2008 to take the attribute 'Form of financing' - which the federal statistics include - also into account for the BIBB 30 September Survey. Not all offices that are required to provide data were able to adjust their release routines in time for the 2008 survey. This adjustment is therefore expected to be completed in the course of the 2009

The number of new training contracts for extra-company vocational training fell by more than 11,280 or 9% - to just 113,818 - in 2008 largely due to the marked reduction in the number of extra-company training places that year. This number was the third lowest since German reunification. Although the number of training contracts declined, the computed placement rate in Germany's eastern states continued to increase in the wake of the demographic

drop in the size of the age cohorts and reached 69.7 in 2008, the second highest level since reunification. This rate is probably even higher in reality because the calculation here used only those youths from the eastern states who had found a training place in either the eastern states or Berlin. It is however to be expected that more youths from the eastern states took up vocational training in the western half of the country in 2008 than vice versa.

Developments in the western states

Die demografischen Veränderungen sind in Westdeutschland bislang noch schwächer ausgeprägt als in den neuen Ländern und Berlin, obwohl sich die Zahl der aktuellen Abgänger aus den allgemeinbildenden und beruflichen Schulen erstmalig deutlich verringerte.

Western states

 

School leavers from general secondary schools

School leavers from
vocational schools

Training place applicants from earlier school-leaver cohorts (unplaced applicants from previous years)

 

 

Not qualified to enter higher education

Qualified to enter higher education

PTY, BVT and FVS

USS and VGS

From the previous year

From even earlier years

Total

2007

559.809

197.365

275.658

87.705

125.888

155.000

1.401.425

2008

541.060

205.534

275.443

89.774

101.688

140.896

1.354.395

Difference

-18.749

+8.169

-215

+2.069

-24.200

-14.104

-47.030

2008 zu 2007

-3,3%

+4,1%

-0,1

+2,4%

-19,2%

-9,1%

-3,4%

School leavers from general secondary schools: actual numbers for 2007, estimate for 2008
School leavers from vocational schools: estimates for 2007 and 2008
Training place seekers from previous years: actual numbers for 2007 and 2008

PTY = school-based prevocational training year, BVT = school-based basic vocational training, FVS = Full-time vocational school which does not award full vocational qualification, USS = specialised upper secondary school, VGS = specialised vocational grammar school

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Institute for Vocational education and Training, own calculations

The only increase was among school leavers who had earned qualification to enrol in a university. This group once again saw a slight increase of some 10,000. This was however exceeded by the decline in the number of all other school leavers (-19,000). In addition, the number of training place seekers from earlier years declined (by a total of some 38,000) in the western states as well.

The only increase was among school leavers who had earned qualification to enrol in a university. This group once again saw a slight increase of some 10,000. This was however exceeded by the decline in the number of all other school leavers (-19,000). In addition, the number of training place seekers from earlier years declined (by a total of some 38,000) in the western states as well.

The number of new training contracts increased to 502,797 (+2,010 or +0.4% over 2007), the highest level since 1992. As in Germany's eastern states, the change seen in the number of new training contracts was closely connected to the development observed in the number of extra-company training places, except that in this case, the change was in the other direction. The reason: The advisory and placement services of the Federal Employment Agency had 1,685 more extra-company training places
available in the western states in 2008 than just one year earlier. The positive trend in the number of new training contracts - together with falling demand - resulted in a further increase in the computed placement rate (the number of new training contracts per 100 school leavers) in the western states. At 67.3 it was 1.2 points higher than the previous year's level and topped the two-thirds mark again for the first time since 2001.

A regional breakdown by state and Employment Agency district shows that not all parts of the western half of the country reported increases in the number of new training contracts. Looking at the individual states, increases were registered in Hamburg (+4.4%), Bremen (+3.1%), Lower Saxony (+1.8%), Baden-Württemberg (+1.1%), Bavaria (+0.8%), Schleswig-Holstein (+0.3%) and North Rhine-Westphalia (+0.2%). By contrast, declines were reported in the states Rhineland-Palatine (-3.6%), Hesse (-1.6%) and Saarland (-0.3%). In the eastern half of the country, the number of new training contracts fell in all six states, led by Saxony (-15.3%), Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (-10.9%), Thuringia (-9.4%) and Saxony-Anhalt (-8.7.%). The declines seen in Berlin (-2.5%) and Brandenburg (-4.2%) were relatively moderate in comparison. The number of new training contracts in the eastern states increased in just three sub-regions, the Employment Agency districts Eberswalde, Sangerhausen and Oschatz.

The number of new training contracts can be broken down not only to the level of Germany's 16 states; they can also be broken down by individual employment agency. Berlin's three employment agencies comprise an exception here however because it is not possible to determine which of the three agencies had purview for the individual contract. Individual figures are available for 176 regions in Germany (35 in the eastern half of the country, 141 in the western half). The three employment agencies in Saarland (Saarbrücken, Saarlouis and Neunkirchen) were consolidated into the new Saarland Employment Agency in 2008. As a result, the number of regions that can be used for a statistical breakdown will be reduced to 174 in the future.

By contrast, 72 of the 141 regions in the western half of the country registered an increased number of new contracts in 2008. The increases even exceeded the 4% mark in 25 of these regions.

Developments in the individual training sectors

A breakdown of new training contracts by training sector reveals a picture that is similarly varied as the breakdown by western states and eastern states. With 1,710 or +0.5% more new training contracts than in the previous reporting period, trade and industry was the only sector reporting a nationwide increase in 2008. This sector signed a total of 369,194 new training contracts, the highest level since 1992, further strengthening its position as the largest training sector by far. Sixty out of every 100 new training contracts signed nationwide in Germany were registered with a chamber of industry and commerce.02

New training contracts in 2008, broken down by training sector and by western states / eastern states

However, the western states alone accounted for the continued growth posted by trade and industry in 2008. The number of new training contracts reported by trade and industry in the western half of the country increased by +7,561 or 2.6%. By contrast, the substantial cut-back in extra-company training places in Germany's eastern states was also reflected in a noticeable decline in the number of new training contracts registered by trade and industry (-5,851 or -7.5%). The skilled trades reported the largest losses - in both absolute and relative terms - in new training contracts in 2008. The second-largest training sector registered 170,515 new training contracts nationwide in 2008, 9,183 or 5.1% less than one year before. The drop in the number of new contracts was particularly large in the eastern states (-4,459 or -13.9%) whereas the decline reported in the western half of the country (-4,724 or -3.2%) was at least relatively moderate in comparison.

Looking at the public sector, the relevant offices reported a total of 13,165 training contracts. This reflects a 1.8% decrease in the number of contracts (-247) over the previous year. In the agricultural sector, the relevant offices reported a total of 15,218 new training contracts nationwide (2007: 15,902 new contracts, -4.3%). Having reported only a moderate decrease in new contracts nationwide (-609 or -1.4%), the trend seen in the liberal professions was the second best out of all seven training sectors, after trade and industry. The state chambers of physicians (+42 or 0.3%), councils of pharmacists (+67 or 3.3%) and chambers of tax consultants (+70 or 1.1%) actually reported increases. Only the state bar councils (-347 or -4.7%), state chambers of veterinarians (-30 or -1.6%) and state chambers of dentists (-411 or -3.4%) reported a decline. All in all, the liberal professions registered 43,947 new training contracts in 2008 (2007: 44,556). With 4,271 new training contracts nationwide, the domestic science field also reported a decline. This figure was 203 fewer than in the previous year, a decrease of 4.5%. A total of 305 new training contracts were signed in the ocean shipping sector, the smallest training sector (-54 or -15%).

Developments in the supply of and demand for training places

The data from the BIBB 30 September Survey on new training contracts can be linked with the vocational training market data issued by the Federal Employment Agency to produce information on the arithmetical ratio between the supply of training places and the demand for training places as of the 30 September reporting date.03

? Based on Section 86 of the Vocational Training Act, the supply of training places on offer is defined as the total number of new training contracts plus the "number of initial training places offered to the Federal Employment Agency for placement which were not filled on 30 September".
The demand for training places is correspondingly calculated as the sum of the number of new training contracts and "the number of persons registered with the Federal Employment Agency on that date as seeking initial training places".

A total of 19,416 unfilled training places were registered with the Federal Employment Agency as of 30 September 2008 (2007: 18,143). Adding to this the 616,615 new training contracts for the reporting year works out to a supply of 636,031 training places on offer during the reporting period, 7,997 fewer (-1.2%) than one year before.

The question of who belongs to the group of "persons registered with the Federal Employment Agency .... as seeking initial training places" has not been handled uniformly up to now when calculating the demand for training places with the help of the number of new training contracts. The practice to date has been to count only those registered training place seekers who had found neither a vocational training place nor an alternative by 30 September of the reporting year. This group totalled 14,469 persons for the 2008 reporting year. Adding this figure to the 616,615 new training contracts results in a demand of 631,084 for the year 2008, 27,388 fewer demanders (-4.2%) than in the previous year.

 

 

Germany as a whole

Western states

Eastern states

2007

2008

2007

2008

2007

2008

Number of training places on offer

644.028

636.031

516.614

519.444

127.414

116.587

Demand for training places (previously used definition)

658.472

631.084

523.836

512.918

134.636

118.166

Demand for training places (expanded definition)

756.486

712.861

606.387

585.199

150.099

127.662

Proportion of supply to demand
(based on the previously used definition of demand)

97,8

100,8

98,6

101,3

94,6

98,7

Proportion of supply to demand
(using the expanded definition of demand)

85,1

89,2

85,2

88,8

84,9

91,3

Sources: BIBB 30 September Survey, Federal Employment Agency (2008a)

This calculation does not include training place seekers who opted for an alternative to a vocational training place (e.g., resumed their schooling, enrolled in a vocational preparation programme, started a practical placement) but continued to look for a training place and who the Federal Employment Agency continued to try to place even as of 30 September. This group totalled 81,777 for the 2008 reporting year. Including this group of training place seekers results in an expanded definition of demand which is also used in the Education in Germany report (2008). Using this expanded definition, demand for training places was 712,861. This was 43,625 fewer (-5.8%) than in 2007.

A comparison of supply and demand based on the previously used definition of demand indicates that there were 100.8 training places on offer for every 100 demanders (western states: 101.3; eastern states: 98.7).

When the expanded definition of demand is used, the proportion of supply to demand falls to 89.2 (western states: 88.8; eastern states: 91.3). This figure is probably significantly closer to reflecting the actual conditions on the vocational training market (see also Ulrich/Eberhard, 2008, in this connection). Interestingly, it also leads to different results in comparisons between the eastern and western states. In contrast to the calculation used to date, the expanded count indicates that the proportion of supply to demand was higher in Germany's eastern states than it was in the western states in 2008. This finding corresponds in turn to the differences between the eastern and western halves of the country seen in the computed placement rates. The reason: The computed placement rate was higher in the eastern states than in the western states in 2008 (see above).

 

Developments in the training places on offer, by occupational field

Occupations in the tertiary sector have increasingly dominated the vocational training system over the last 15 years. In contrast to 1994, when there was still a balance between service occupations and manufacturing occupations, 101,704 more training places were offered for service occupations than for manufacturing occupations in 2008.04 so that occupations in the tertiary sector accounted for 55% of all training places being offered, while manufacturing occupations represented only 39%. Germany's dual vocational training system is apparently following the change taking place in the employment system not only in quantitative but also in structural terms.

Looking at the manufacturing sector, the number of training places fell in the construction occupations in particular, declining by half between 1994 and 2008. The change was less dramatic in the metal-working and electrical occupations, particularly since the renewed increase in the number of training places on offer in 2008 (+563 or + 0.4% more than in the previous year) raised the number of training places almost to the levels seen in the 1990s. The number of training places on offer for service occupations was in fact greater during 2005 - a year ridden by crisis - than it was in 1994. This was the case not only for commercial occupations in the goods and services field but also for administrative and office occupations.

 

Outlook

Both the temporal longitudinal section and the regional cross-section confirm the close link between the vocational training market and the employment system. The supply of in-company vocational training places tended to be higher in 2008 in those regions where the unemployment rate was lower. In addition, a relatively close correlation with the employment trend can be seen for the years 1992 through 2008: In those years when the number of employed workers who were subject to social insurance was above average, there were also more training places being offered.

However, the fact that the supply of training places is dependent on trade and industry's requirements also means that downturns in the economy are also reflected relatively quickly in the number of training places that firms offer. The findings of the Econometric Prediction and Simulation Model for the Vocational Training System (PROSIMA) which BIBB developed in collaboration with the University of Bochum indicated already at the start of 2008 that the upswing on the vocational training market could draw to a close in the course of the year (compare the Report on Vocational Education and Training for the Year 2008, p. 102ff). Based on PROSIMA findings, it could be expected that "firms will respond to the economic slow-down that is currently emerging and will continue through 2009 by reducing the number of the in-company training places they offer". It was therefore reckoned that the number of training places on offer would drop to 623,000 in 2008. At 636,000, the number of training places on offer in 2008 was larger than PROSIMA expected. The prediction about the downturn on the vocational training market did however prove to be correct.

This downswing can be illustrated using figures regarding the number of in-company training places registered each month with the Federal Employment Agency and their change over the same month in the previous year. Although increases were still being reported at the start of the placement year, steady declines were observed during the following months.

Given that the trend seen in recent months also indicates a further downward movement, a further sharp decline in the number of in-company vocational training places on offer is to be expected in 2009. It is not however clear whether and the extent to which this development will lead to a deterioration in the chances youths have on the vocational training market. The reason: Thanks to the demographic trend, the vocational training market will see a further easing on the demander side in 2009, with the number of school leavers from general secondary schools and vocational schools declining by nearly 50,000. Additionally, the number of unplaced training place seekers from previous years is likely to decrease further as well (see Ulmer/Ulrich, 2008).

 

Development in the number of school leavers in 2009

School leavers from general secondary schools

School leavers from
vocational schools

Total

Not qualified to enter higher education

Qualified to enter higher education

PTY, BVT and FVS

USS and VGS

2008

638.695

271.088

311.770

111.922

1.333.475

2009

604.835

268.219

301.572

109.930

1.284.556

Difference

-33.860

-2.869

-10.198

-1.992

-48.919

2009 over 2008

-5,3%

-1,1%

-3,3%

-1,8%

-3,7%

School leavers from general secondary schools and vocational schools: estimates for 2008 and 2009

PTY = school-based prevocational training year, BVT = school-based basic vocational training, FVS = Full-time vocational school which does not award full vocational qualification, USS = specialised upper secondary school, VGS = specialised vocational grammar school

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, own calculations
See also: Deters/Ulmer/Ulrich (2008).

Consequently it would be possible to deal with limited declines in the number of training places on offer without leading to a deterioration in market conditions for youths. On the other hand, given the still excessively large share of unsuccessful training place seekers, efforts should be made not only to maintain the training place situation for youths at the 2009 level but to further improve it. In light of the fact that there are currently major unknowns that will determine the further course of the economy, it is virtually impossible to predict how the number of training places on offer will actually develop in 2009.

Literaturhinweise

  • Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung
    Bildung in Deutschland 2008. Ein indikatorengestützter Bericht mit einer Analyse zu Übergängen im Anschluss an den Sekundarbereich I
    Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann, 2008
    ISBN 978-3-7639-3663-2
  • Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Hrsg.)
    Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen
    Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann, 2008
    (Berichte zur beruflichen Bildung)
    ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
  • Beicht, Ursula; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
    Which youths do not undergo/complete formal vocational training? Analysis of important determinants, with special consideration given to the individual education biographyBielefeld: Bertelsmann, 2008
    (BIBB REPORT 6/08)
    ISSN 1865-0821
  • Bonin, Holger; Schneider, Marc; Quinke, Hermann; Arens, Tobias
    Zukunft von Bildung und Arbeit. Perspektiven von Arbeitskräftebedarf und -angebot bis 2020
    (IZA Research Report Nr. 9).
    Bonn: Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, 2007.
  • Bundesagentur für Arbeit
    Arbeitsmarkt in Zahlen. Statistik zum Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. Bewerber und Berufsausbildungsstellen. Berichtsjahr 2007/08
    Nürnberg: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2008a
  • Bundesagentur für Arbeit
    Arbeitsmarkt in Zahlen. Statistik zum Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. "Nationaler Ausbildungspakt". November 2008
    Nürnberg: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2008b
  • Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
    Berufsbildungsbericht 2008
    Bonn: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, 2008
  • Ulrich, Joachim Gerd, Eberhard, Verena (2008)
    Die Entwicklung des Ausbildungsmarktes seit der Wiedervereinigung
    In: Beicht, Ursula; Friedrich, Michael, Ulrich, Joachim Gerd [Hrsg.]: Ausbildungschancen und Verbleib von Schulabsolventen (Berichte zur beruflichen Bildung)
    Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann, 2008, S. 13-57
    ISBN 978-3-7639-1120-2
  • große Deters, Fenne; Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd
    Entwicklung des Nachfragepotenzials nach dualer Berufsausbildung bis 2020
    In: Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd: Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses
    Bonn: Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung, S. 9-28
    (Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere, Heft 106)
    ISBN 978-3-88555-847-7
  • Statistisches Bundesamt
    Klassifizierung der Berufe. Systematisches und alphabetisches Verzeichnis der Berufsbenennungen
    Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1992
    ISBN 3-8246-0077-3
    Troltsch, Klaus; Walden, Günter
    Beschäftigungssystem dominiert zunehmend Ausbildungsstellenmarkt. Zur Responsivität des dualen Ausbildungssystems
    In: Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis 36 (2007) 4, S. 5-9
    ISSN 0341-4515
  • Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Ehrenthal, Bettina; Häfner, Elfriede
    Regionale Mobilitätsbereitschaft und Mobilität der Ausbildungsstellenbewerber.
    In: Eberhard, Verena; Krewerth, Andreas; Ulrich; Joachim Gerd [Hrsg.]: Mangelware Lehrstelle. Zur aktuellen Lage der Ausbildungsplatzbewerber in Deutschland
    Bielefeld: W. Bertelsmann, 2006, S. 99-120
    (Berichte zur beruflichen Bildung; H. 279)
    ISBN 3-7639-1087-5
  • Ulmer, Philipp; Ulrich, Joachim Gerd (Hrsg.)
    Der demografische Wandel und seine Folgen für die Sicherstellung des Fachkräftenachwuchses
    Bonn: Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung
    (Wissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere, Heft 106)
    ISBN 978-3-88555-847-7
  • Ulrich, Joachim Gerd; Krekel, Elisabeth M.
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    Bielefeld: Bertelsmann, 2007
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    ISSN 1865-0821
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  • 1

    Cf."Confusion about the 2004 increase in the number of training places" regarding the difference between the BIBB 30 September Survey on new training contracts as of 30 September and the Federal Statistical Office's vocational training statistics as of 31 December.

  • 2

    When interpreting findings broken down by sector it must be remembered however that the actual training provided in the respective training sector does not have to tally with the findings that are based on counts from the individual sector. For example, in the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Hesse, the chambers of industry and commerce are also responsible for the domestic science training sector. Additionally, a clear-cut breakdown by training sector is not always possible. Furthermore, training contracts that the public sector or the liberal professions concluded for 'training occupations' (i.e., occupations that require completion of formal vocational training) that are considered to belong to trade and industry or the skilled trades are not attributed to the public sector or respective liberal profession but rather are counted along with the other training contracts concluded in trade and industry or the skilled trades. It is estimated that the public sector provides approximately twice as many training places for recognised training occupations as it does for the occupations for which it is specifically responsible.

  • 3

    The figures cited here for the number of still unfilled training places and the number of persons still seeking a training place deviate slightly from the figures that the Federal Employment Agency published because only those training places and persons were counted here that could be clearly matched with a particular region and a specific occupation.

  • 4

    The supply structure from 1994 to 2005 was estimated with the aid of training market data issued by the Federal Statistical Office with the reporting date of 31 December. The category 'service occupations' reflects the occupational groups 66 through 93 used by the Occupational Classification System of the Federal Statistical Office (1992). Manufacturing occupations comprise the groups 10 through 55. The 'other occupations' that do not fall into the categories 'service occupations' and 'manufacturing occupations' include technical occupations (60 - 65), occupations in agriculture, the farming of animals, forestry and the growing of crops, market gardening and horticulture (01 - 06), occupations in mining, quarrying and extraction (07 - 08) and occupations which cannot be unequivocally categorised (98 - 99)

Erscheinungsdatum, Hinweis Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

Publication on the Internet: December-18-08
This online publication has been registered and archived with the German National Library.
URN: urn:nbn:de:0035-0306-9

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