Technological Progress and Worlds of Work
Digitalisation will have consequences which we would like to be able to already assess today. On the subject of “Technological Progress and Worlds of Work”, the following presents research and results which provide answers to the questions of what the transformation might look like and how we can shape it.
In late 2016, BIBB launched a project on “Polarisation 4.0” to investigate whether or not the study by Frey and Osborne (2013) could be applied to Germany. According to Frey and Osborne, more than half of professional activity in the USA will be replaced by machines, robots and computers at some point in the future. This replacement would primarily affect a so-called “intermediate qualification level”. Simply applied to Germany, this would mean that two thirds of the labour force—i.e. those who are gainfully employed after having completed vocation education and training—are at risk of being replaced in their professional activities.
Clarifying the underlying factors was crucial to the project. The discussion is currently dominated by the rationale that human work is unprofitable and that robots or machines can better perform some specific tasks of this work. These kinds of specific tasks would most certainly be replaced in any case, which, supposedly, would then in turn lead to human work being replaced in its entirety. This approach, however, falls far too short as it leaves almost no scope to recognise opportunities for shaping the change and barely takes into account the competencies upon which professional agency is based. It is also hardly possible to explain an enrichment of professional tasks using this theory. This argument is further weakened by the lack of temporal relevance (when will it be replaced?), especially since it describes some possibilities of replacement that have already long become reality.
This project takes a step back and goes into more depth by establishing how professional requirements are changing under the influence of technological developments. Instead of regarding technological transformation and all of its various forms (such as digitalisation) as the sole cause of changes to professional requirements, the project regards it as simply one of several factors. It incorporates the perspectives of companies and of members of the labour force in equal measure; the projections for the future are presented within a clear time frame.
Dealing with this theory gave rise to a brief expert report and a scientific discussion paper, as well as conference participation and workshops in which the expertise of the project team was sought after.
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND WORLDS OF WORK
There is a recurring question when assessing the potential impact of new technologies on the labour market. What proportion of work activities and tasks will be replaced by new technologies? The BIBB Polarisation Project team is investigating how existing data can be used to map these so-called "areas of potential replacement" in the most effective way. To this end, the perspectives of individual employees and companies were examined and a proposal was made as to how these could be linked.
What are the changes brought about by digitalisation and automation? Will there be a polarisation of the labour market, as Frey and Osborne (2013) claim? Is there already empirical evidence of this? These are some of the questions that BIBB has analysed as part of the research project "Polarisation of Tasks in the Economy 4.0".
The results indicate that the transformation of occupations, tasks and, in particular, entire sectors is being driven by the digitalisation of the economy and will accelerate in the direction of more technology-dependent services. However, the job losses predicted by the polarisation thesis will not materialise because of the importance of the task mix in the workplace.
Although the BIBB study points to impending job losses, it also shows that an equal number of new jobs with different requirements will be created. The interim results of the project are described in this Academic Research Discussion Paper.
This paper presents BIBB's taxonomy of tools. Tools are identified and classified by means of automated data extraction from job advertisements, a procedure that enables the entire spectrum of tools to be covered. The taxonomy is applicable to different data sets and can be transferred to different topics. It is constantly being developed and updated.
This short expert survey is the first result of a project conducted by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The project is entitled "Polarisation of Tasks in the Economy 4.0 - Skilled Worker Qualifications and Skilled Worker Needs in the Digitalised Work of Tomorrow" and examines how to assess the possible effects of technological progress on the German labour market and on vocational education and training in Germany in particular.
On the current state of research on the substitutability of occupations and professional activities
Since 2013, there have been a number of studies on areas of potential substitution based on the TASK approach (Autor et al. 2003). These have tended to be theoretical in nature. The focus has always been on the potential rather than on the chances of their realisation. Although theoretical studies only describe a (theoretical) replacement potential, both the press and management consultancies have accepted this as a fact and extrapolated horrific scenarios accordingly. In reality, however, the calculation and use of substitution potential must always be based on the following considerations:
- A technology must be known and available to replace a task. However, this is not a given. Knowledge of individual technologies and their (possible) networking with other technologies is not guaranteed, nor is actual availability in the production process.
- Replaceability must also make economic sense and be accepted by customers.
- Replaceability must not already have been implemented. Highly digitised sectors in particular have sometimes been able to exploit this potential. Other sectors and small and medium-sized enterprises are still trying to catch up. This has to be taken into account when considering the impact.
- Businesses may relocate or start new businesses. This may lead to changes in employment and in the tasks of companies.
- Digitalisation does not only open up areas of potential substitution. It also affects the production of products, the supply of services and goods, consumer behaviour, forms of employment, working conditions and so on.
Theoretically based concepts of replaceability potentials
Frey and Osborne (2013) examine the theoretical possibility of task replacement in occupations. They show that 47 per cent of workers in the US are employed in occupations with a high probability of automation (> 70 per cent) in the next ten to 20 years.
Bonin et al. (2015) transfer the probability of Frey and Osborne to the German occupational and task structure. They show that nine percent of jobs in the US have task profiles that are relatively susceptible to automation. This applies to twelve percent of jobs in Germany.
Dengler and Matthes (2015, 2018) also analyse the theoretical possibility of task substitution based on occupational content (data source: Berufenet). They show that in 2013, 15 per cent of German employees subject to social security contributions worked in jobs with a very high substitutability potential. More than 70 per cent of tasks can already be computerised.
Empirical studies
Some empirical studies, also following the TASK approach, use routine tasks in their analyses of substitutability.
Pfeiffer and Suphan (2015): Arbeitsvermögensindex auf der Grundlage der Selbstwahrnehmung der Beschäftigten [Work capacity index on the basis of the self-perception of employees] (database: BIBB/BAuA Labour Force Surveys).
Tiemann (2016): Routineanteile und Ersetzbarkeit aus Sicht von Beschäftigten – empirisches Maß der Routineanteile [Routine proportions and replaceability from the point of view of employees – empirical measure of routine proportions] (database: BIBB/BAuA Labour Force Surveys).
Lukowski (2016): Routineanteile und Ersetzbarkeit aus Sicht von Betrieben und erreichter Grad der betrieblichen Digitalisierung [Routine proportions and replaceability from the point of view of companies and degree of company digitalisation reached]. Depending on the sector, this is between 2.4 and 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 7 (database: BIBB Training Panel).
Theoretical analyses of potential in the context of projections
The relevant replacement capacities in the real economy have been estimated mainly by extrapolations based on theoretical considerations of potential. Most of the authors come from the consultancy sector.
Brzeski (ING-DIBA, 2015): 18.3 million jobs in Germany are at risk from "robotisation" in the next ten to 20 years.
McKinsey (2017): Automation could replace half of all working hours by 2055. Almost a quarter of all working hours could be eliminated as early as 2030.
Rentmeister et al. (Boston Consulting Group, 2017): The jobs of 7.7 million workers will be affected by automation by 2025 (database: Dengler/Matthes; own projections).
Complex scenarios
Complex scenarios attempt to visualise replaceability in the context of macroeconomic, sectoral and demographic developments.
BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational Projections (QuBe) - Economy 4.0 Scenarios 2015/2017 (Wolter et al., BIBB-IAB): Just under 1.5 million new jobs will be created by 2025. Over the same period, just over 1.5 million jobs will be lost. This means a net loss of around 30,000 jobs (database: includes Matthes/Dengler, as part of a QuBe model/scenario).
Scenario QuBe 2018 (planned) with revised replacement rates based more on empirical data BIBB-IAB QuBe
2018 scenario (planned) with revised replacement rates
Economix (Vogler-Ludwig, Düll, Kriechel) Prognosis 2016 - Economy and labour market in the digital age.