The Sixth Wave of Qualifications and Occupation Projections From the Year 2020

The sixth wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupation projections updates the development of labour supply and labour demand up until the year 2040 in a differentiated way by 141 occupational groups (three-digit code of the German Classification of Occupations 2010) and in accordance with four qualifications and requirements levels. The methods deployed in previous waves serve as a basis. In the sixth wave, a new indicator to evaluate the skilled worker situation has been provided in the form of the adjusted search duration.

The QuBe basic projection reflects labour market development if existing trends and modes of behaviour continue to apply in the education and training system and in the economy. It thus makes a consistent pathway of development visible. In the basic projection, the economic slumps occasioned by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 are considered to be an “external shock”. For this reason, the assumption is that the same momentum will be resumed following medium-term deviation from the long-term development. The supposition in the basic projection is, therefore, that the COVID-19 crisis will not lead to any long-term changes in behaviour. The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal.