The seventh wave of qualification and occupation projections (2022)

The seventh wave of BIBB-IAB qualification and occupation projections (QuBe project) continues to track the development of labour supply and demand until 2040, broken down into 141 occupational groups (Classification of Occupations 2010, military occupations combined) and four qualification and requirement levels. It integrates the given methods used in previous waves.

The QuBe baseline projection predicts a labour market development that continues existing trends and behaviours in the education system and economy. So far, it reveals a consistent development path. By doing so, it opens up a horizon for comparison with alternative scenarios, such as the ‘Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt’ (‘digitised world of work’). The baseline projection also takes into account measures and behaviours for which no long-term figures are (yet) available, provided that their occurrence can be assumed to be extremely likely. For the seventh wave, this applies in particular to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. These include short-term increases in import prices for metals, fossil fuels and food. These are not expected to decline until 2030. Furthermore, an increase in net migration is modelled for 2022 and 2023. Increased defence spending to around two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and an accelerated energy transition, as outlined in the German government's ‘Easter package’, are also taken into account.

The data from the seventh wave is also discussed in detail in various publications. The projection results can be accessed in detail in the QuBe data portal.