To hint on options for political actions, our QuBe baseline projection forecasts already observable developments in the education and employment system into the future. Impacts of changed framework conditions - such as through an increasingly digitized economy - can then be analysed by means of scenario analysis.
You can download our projection results by occupational fields and level of qualifications or requirements respectively in the QuBe Data Portal and differentiate both supply and demand by persons or working hours.
The projection results are differentiated by the BIBB occupational fields, a summary of individual occupations according to a common focus of activity. You can find an assignment of the German Occupational Classification 2010 to the occupational fields here:
Taking into account the transitions within the education system (between different training facilities) and between the education system and the labour market, the QuBe projections show the long-term occupational structure of the new labour supply coming from the education system. This can be compared to the amount of persons with a certain trained occupation leaving the labour force in the long run.
The unique feature of the QuBe projections is the use of occupational flexibility matrices. Not every person works in the same job they were trained in for their entire working life. The occupational flexibility matrix indicates the proportion of people who remain in the occupation they were trained in (stayer) and the proportion, who changes into other occupational fields.