In 2014, the previous methodology of the BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections were further refined and a new forecast was undertaken up to the year 2030.

In doing so, the next logical step of a projection of labour supply and demand was completed. It becomes possible to see the interaction between supply and demand by taking into account salaries specific to occupational fields and qualifications. The aim of this approach is not the neoclassical market clearing by means of unrestricted price adjustments, but to highlight various adjustment options and their potential effects. This means that on the demand side, the supply of labour available for specific occupations (in numbers of individuals and hours) is taken into account in determining the salaries for the occupations. The elasticities of occupational flexibility are estimated on the supply side, making it possible to see the response of labour supply to the changes in salaries in the occupational fields.

In addition to this, the third projection wave responds to the increasing migration to Germany due to the economic crisis with the assumption of a net in migration of 200,000 individuals from 2020 onwards (previously 100,000 individuals from 2014). The population projections are also adapted to the latest preliminary census results.

Industry 4.0 and the consequences for labour market and economy. Scenario calculations in line with the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections

Wolter, Marc Ingo; Mönnig, Anke; Hummel, Markus et. al. | IAB Forschungsbericht 8/2015 | 2015

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Wages and occupational flexibilities as determinants of the interactive QuBe labour market model : a methodlogical report on the basic projection of the 3rd wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupational field projections

Maier, Tobias; Zika, Gerd; Mönnig, Anke u.a. | 2014

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