The eighth wave of qualification and occupation projections (2024)

The eighth wave of BIBB-IAB qualification and occupation projections (QuBe project) continues to track the development of labour supply and demand until 2040, broken down into 141 occupational groups (Classification of Occupations 2010, military occupations combined) and four qualification and requirement levels. The QuBe baseline projection predicts a labour market development that continues existing trends and behaviours in the education system and economy. So far, it reveals a consistent path of development. The QuBe baseline projection opens up a comparative horizon for alternative scenarios whose developments deviate from past trends.

Current structural breaks are naturally not yet included in the given historical data. However, the base projection also takes into account highly probable measures and behaviours for which no long-term figures are (yet) available. This applies, for example, to the consequences of climate change or the expansion of organic farming. With regard to the energy transition and mobility transition, diversification and derisking, further modelling is being carried out to take current developments into account. The security policy ‘Zeitenwende’ (‘turning point’) and the German government´s ‘Rentenpaket II’ (‘Pension Package II’) are also taken into account in INFORGE, the core of the QINFORGE economic model used in QuBe.

The eighth wave of projections reveals a consolidation of some structural breaks that were already observed in the seventh wave. The earlier expectation of an economic recovery can no longer be maintained without reservation: less labour, less growth.

The results of the eighth wave are discussed in detail in various publications. The projection results can be accessed in detail in the QuBe data portal.