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BIBB REPORT 23/14 - Shortages in the medium qualifications area despite increased immigration

Latest results from BIBB and Institute for Employment Research (IAB) qualifications and occupational field projections up until the year 2030 taking wage developments and occupational flexibility into account

BIBB REPORT 23/14 - Shortages in the medium qualifications area despite increased immigration
AutorInnen: Maier, Tobias; Zika, Gerd; Wolter, Marc Ingo; Kalinowski, Michael; Helmrich, Robert
ISSN 1865-0821
Reihe BIBB Report
Erschienen 2014
Verfügbar auf Englisch | Deutsch

The results of the third wave of the qualifications and occupational field projections conducted under the joint lead management of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) provide an overview of the expected development of the German labour market up until the year 2030. Assuming that previous patterns of behaviour will continue, it is revealed that shortages in the medium qualifications area will persist despite the fact that increased immigration has been taken into account compared to the first two waves. Even wage adjustments included in the modelling for the first time are unable to compensate for occupational bottlenecks. The reasons for this are that existing structural differences in remuneration between occupations cannot be overcome and labour supply by occupation learned cannot work in every other occupation.